Office of the Historian

249. Memorandum From Philip Ringdahl of the National Security Council Staff to the President’s Deputy Assistant for National Security Affairs (Poindexter)1

Washington, November 27, 1985

SUBJECT

  • Soviet-Ethiopian Relations

Attached is a well-sourced report on Mengistu’s recent visit to Moscow, and Mengistu’s interpretation that the Soviets remain solidly behind his regime, including Gorbachev’s assurance that Ethiopia/The Horn would not be discussed with the U.S., and that the Soviets would increase assistance.2

Since Mengistu’s return, he has moved to reenergize the largely coercive resettlement program (from the northern insurgent areas to the south), and to begin a forced “villageization”, or collectivized agriculture scheme. Mengistu’s domestic political and security priorities continue to far outweigh Western famine relief operations. You have seen collateral intelligence which shows that Ethiopia will be directly supporting a planned major offensive into Sudan later this year by John Garang.3

The U.S. is cutting food shipments to Ethiopia this year by about one-third (because of better rains), but we will still be providing about 300,000 tons, or one-third of Ethiopia’s famine relief needs. I asked Frank Wisner last week to consider suspending all food relief shipments until Ethiopia has straightened out its port problems, caused largely by priority given to military deliveries (we had also pressed State hard for a formal demarche, to which they finally agreed).4 Some U.S. food is rotting owing to the slow off-take.

I still don’t like indirectly subsidizing or making it possible for Mengistu, with Soviet support, to pursue coercive, collectivization policies. The government’s northern offensive has been the most successful in 25 years and food aid has helped to keep the offensive operative through the rainy season. As you know, our Ethiopian food assistance programs are controversial, with strong proponents for and against. It is also politically sensitive on the Hill. We can’t do much about the FY [Page 670] 86 program, although some downward adjustment is possible. But I believe we should begin thinking about terminating our food assistance programs to Ethiopia in FY 87, assuming the good rains continue. We can argue that Ethiopia’s food deficits are caused by failed Marxist collectivist/agriculture policies which we refuse to support, rather than by the drought. The downside is that the NSC may take some heat publicly for advocating such a position, but policy adjustments are now necessary. We have little leverage on Mengistu, but we should not make it easier for him to pursue pro-Soviet goals.

  1. Source: Reagan Library, 1985 SYS 4 INT, 411354–41473. Secret. Sent for information. A stamped notation in the upper right-hand margin reads, “NOTED.”↩
  2. Dated November 22, attached but not printed.↩
  3. Garang de Mabior Atem (1945–2005) was a Sudanese politician and leader. From 1983 until 2005 he led the Sudan People’s Liberation Army.↩
  4. Not found.↩