270. Memorandum From Jack Matlock of the National Security Council Staff to the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (McFarlane)1
SUBJECT
- Ogarkov Removal
The intelligence community is in the throes of trying to reach a judgment on Ogarkov’s removal and will presumably have a considered piece available in the morning.2 The basic problem in judging the implications of this move is the paucity of information: as if now we literally have nothing more than the brief public announcement. In the meantime, I offer the following very tentative thoughts.
1. The announcement implies that Ogarkov’s removal is not in connection with a promotion (e.g., to replace Ustinov as Minister of Defense) or a more-or-less lateral transfer (e.g., as CINC Warsaw Pact Forces). In either of these cases, the promotion or transfer is normally announced first, or at least simultaneously with, the announcement of a replacement.
2. These circumstances lead one to suspect that Ogarkov is being demoted. And if that is the case, one must suspect that it is either for policy reasons, or as part of a leadership power struggle.
[Page 964]3. Akhromeyev was Ogarkov’s most senior deputy, and therefore was, in bureaucratic terms, the logical successor.3 He has been more active in the past than the other deputies in speaking with foreign visitors, particularly on arms control matters. However, I am not aware of any information available which would give us a fix on possible policy differences between him and Ogarkov.
4. Although it is intriguing to speculate as to what this might mean for a succession, I see little point in it at this time, since we know too little to do more than imagine conceivable scenarios. The important thing to note is that it may be connected in some way with a policy or power struggle. If so, we will have to wait for future events before we can judge what it is about. At a minimum, however, this sudden move, and the cryptic announcement, do reinforce the growing impression that major changes may be afoot in the Soviet leadership.
- Source: Reagan Library, Executive Secretariat, NSC Country File, Europe and Soviet Union, USSR (08/27/84–08/31/84); NLR–748–25A–25–1–1. Secret. Sent for information. A stamp on the first page reads: “Noted.”↩
On September 8, Robert Kaiser reported in the Washington Post: “One of the most powerful men in the Soviet Union, Marshal Nikolai Ogarkov, was suddenly, unexpectedly replaced as chief of staff of the Soviet armed forces and first deputy minister of defense.” The article continued: “Tass announced that Ogarkov had been removed from his post and replaced by Marshal Sergei Akhromeyev, his chief deputy and apparently his intimate colleague. This sequence confirms that Ogarkov’s ouster was sudden, and probably a surprise to Ogarkov himself. But why did it happen? Moscow was rife with rumors and theories today, none of them confirmable.” (Robert G. Kaiser, “Moscow Mystery: Theories Abound on Cause of Marshal Ogarkov’s Ouster,” Washington Post, September 8, 1984, p. A17)
For the official Soviet announcement, see Current Digest of the Soviet Press, vol. XXXVI, No. 36 (October 3, 1984), p. 6. Several telegrams provided analysis of the situation: telegram 11384 from Moscow, September 7; telegram 270143 to Jerusalem, September 12; and telegram 270792 to Bonn, September 12. (Department of State, Central Foreign Policy File, Electronic Telegrams, D840569–0399, D840579–0534, and N840010–0366, respectively)
↩- In his memoir, Shultz recalled: “Ogarkov had been known in military circles for his ‘independent of the party’ tendencies. At sixty-one, Akhromeyev was the youngest marshal in the Soviet army. He reputedly had extensive arms control experience and major responsibilities for operations in Afghanistan. Art Hartman had met Akhromeyev and described him as candid, affable, and less prone to polemics than other Soviets, with an unusually sophisticated grasp of strategic and arms control issues.” (Shultz, Turmoil and Triumph, pp. 480–481)↩