65. Telegram From the Embassy in Afghanistan to the Department of State1
6978. Subject: Some Reflections on the Afghanistan Political Crisis.
1. (C—Entire text).
2. I think it must be quite evident to the Dept and addressee posts that we are witnessing a very significant political crisis in Afghanistan. In this regard, I would like to highlight some aspects and share some personal thoughts:
—The crisis is not over. At this point in time the loyalty of the DRA military units in such areas as Ghanzi, Kandahar and Kunduz is not clear, and there are widespread reports (and some evidence) that the three deposed military figures in the Cabinet (Watanjar, Gulabzoi, and Mazdooryar) have managed to escape the city and are at large. It is quite possible that civil war among major DRA military units could ensue, led by pro-Taraki or otherwise anti-Amin elements. Here in Kabul, we are very much aware that the political situation remains tense. Major streets adjacent to important ministries remain blocked off to regular traffic, and here at the Chancery, manned Soviet-built tanks are stationed astride the three streets bordering the Embassy property. We can’t enter or exit by the front gate because the street is closed, so we are using our emergency back gate, but do so under the barrel of a large T–62 tank. It is all a bit unnerving, but something certainly to write home to mother about.
—For 18 months now we have watched this Marxist party (PDPA) devour itself. An Afghan official last night quietly described the leadership to an Embassy officer as a “bunch of scorpions biting each other to death.” By way of illustration, there have been 25 Cabinet changes since the original list was promulgated in April 1978. The number of Deputy Minister changes has been even more: 34. Purge after purge has occurred, and one can’t help wonder how the regime manages to survive. Part of the answer is, of course, brutal suppression of perceived opposition. The number of political prisoners killed may have reached 6,000, and probably more than four times that number have been in and out of political jails.
[Page 185]—The insurgency during this crisis period has been inept and quiescent. It has not taken advantage of the political crisis to push its advantage.
—I don’t know what the future will bring. Amin has amazingly survived plot after plot against him. Surely the law of averages should catch up with him someday. But then Stalin died in bed. Personally, I would give him no better odds than 50 per cent to survive in power this calendar year. I give his chances of dying in bed of old age as nil. I would though, lay higher odds that the party itself (PDPA) will survive in control in some form.
3. It is an interesting time to be in Kabul. Let’s hope nobody gets hurt.
- Source: National Archives, RG 59, Central Foreign Policy File, D790426–0729. Confidential; Immediate; Limdis. Sent for information to Islamabad, Moscow, New Delhi, and Tehran.↩