Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964–1968, Volume XXIV, Africa

629. Special National Intelligence Estimate¹

SNIE 70–2–66

Washington, December 1, 1966.

PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS FOLLOWING THE UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY RESOLUTION TO TERMINATE THE SOUTH-WEST AFRICA MANDATE

The Problem

To estimate probable developments, particularly reactions of key countries, following the recent UN General Assembly resolution terminating South Africa’s mandate in South-West Africa and placing the territory under direct UN responsibility.

Summary and Conclusions

A. The October 1966 UN General Assembly resolution ending South Africa’s mandate in South-West Africa and placing the territory under direct UN responsibility has set the stage for a confrontation between the UN and South Africa. Talks through diplomatic channels may produce some new South African proposals, perhaps leading to a plan by which Pretoria would continue to administer the territory under UN supervision. But it is highly unlikely that the South Africans will agree to give up administration of the territory or to accept UN supervision of its administration.² We believe the African states will settle for nothing less than the ouster of South Africa from South-West Africa. (Paras 1–2, 9)

B. We believe it unlikely that the Security Council would adopt mandatory economic or military sanctions against South Africa. Even if the Security Council did adopt mandatory economic sanctions, it is unlikely that all important countries would effectively enforce the measure. If all South Africa’s major trading partners cooperated in applying economic sanctions over a protracted period, this might bring some modification in South African attitudes. But in this case, we think it more likely that the South Africans would become even more intransigent. (Paras. 11–17, 21–24)

C. We further believe that any attempt forcibly to dislodge South Africa’s hold on South-West Africa would require a major military effort, even if backed by a Security Council resolution or by a “Uniting for Peace” resolution of the General Assembly. It is virtually certain that none of the major European powers, including the USSR, would provide sufficient financial or military force to oust South Africa from South-West Africa. (Paras. 25–26)

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1. Source: Central Intelligence Agency: Job 79–R01012A, ODDI Registry of NIE and SNIE Files. Secret; Controlled Dissem. According to a note on the cover sheet, the estimate was submitted by Director of Central Intelligence Richard M. Helms, and concurred in by the U.S. Intelligence Board on December 1.
2. Mr. Thomas L. Hughes, the Director of Intelligence and Research, Department of State, believes it is possible that the South Africans might accept some degree of UN supervision over their administration of South-West Africa, although he agrees that the chances are against such an arrangement. [Footnote in the source text.]