Office of the Historian

627. Intelligence Report Prepared in the Central Intelligence Agency1

CIA/RR ER 66–25
Washington, November 1, 1966.

FEASIBILITY OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AGAINST THE REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA2

Summary

Black African countries are now demanding in the General Assembly that the UN act to end the Republic of South Africa’s mandate over Southwest Africa, an action which could lead to political and economic sanctions. Enforcement of sanctions would be difficult and costly, particularly for the United States and the United Kingdom, but even with a naval blockade, sanctions would not seriously damage South Africa’s economy.

The vulnerability of the South African economy to sanctions is not great. The country has a strong agricultural sector and rich natural resources, and recent South African governments have encouraged the development of an industrial sector that is oriented to the use of domestic raw materials (see Figure 1). Moreover, sanctions aimed at the Republic could have disastrous effects on other southern African nations such as the new countries of Botswana and Lesotho.

The problem of enforcing sanctions would be considerably complicated should the UN confrontation with South Africa involve the Portuguese territories of Mozambique and Angola. In this case, the adverse effects of sanctions could spread to Malawi, Zambia, Rhodesia, and the Province of Katanga in Congo (Kinshasa)—all of which depend in large measure on transport routes through the Portuguese territories.

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  1. Source: Department of State, Central Files, POL 24 S AFR. Secret; No Foreign Dissem. Sent under cover of a November l memorandum from the CIA’s Director for Research and Reports William N. Morell, Jr. to Assistant Secretary Palmer.↩
  2. This report was produced solely by CIA. It was prepared by the Office of Research and Reports and coordinated by the Office of National Estimates and the Office of Current Intelligence; the estimates and conclusions represent the best judgment of the Directorate of Intelligence as of 24 October 1966. [Footnote in the source text.]↩