Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964–1968, Volume XXIV, Africa

554. Intelligence Memorandum Prepared in the Central Intelligence Agency¹

Washington, undated.

RR IM 67–1

RHODESIA AND ZAMBIA: FROM VOLUNTARY TO MANDATORY SANCTIONS²

Summary

Mandatory economic sanctions imposed by the UN against Rhodesia are not likely to have the desired result. Essentially, the Security Council Resolution of 16 December 1966 makes binding on all UN members many of the voluntary sanctions which have been in effect for more than a year. These sanctions have failed to force Rhodesian Prime Minister Ian Smith to reach an accommodation with the United Kingdom, largely because of South African and Portuguese support. Both South Africa and Portugal have indicated that they will ignore the Security Council’s demands. Thus the economy of Rhodesia will probably be able to function at close to present levels. Voluntary sanctions also failed because the United Kingdom underestimated the white Rhodesians’ commitment to the unilateral declaration of independence (UDI). Their determination is probably even greater now than a year ago.

Most of the adverse effects of voluntary sanctions have fallen on Zambia, whose economy is considerably shakier now than when Rhodesia proclaimed its independence on 11 November 1965. Zambia has had little success in its frenetic efforts over the past year to find alternative transport routes and thus reduce its critical dependence on Rhodesia. If present trends continue, Zambia will almost certainly have to make further concessions to Rhodesia to prevent economic deterioration. (For major transport routes in central Africa, see the map.)

Rhodesia, moreover, retains its capacity to retaliate against sanctions by refusing either to supply Zambia with goods or to carry the bulk of that country’s imports and exports. Rhodesia could thus quickly bring the modern economy of Zambia to a halt and there would be little that UN members could do to supply Zambia with even its minimal needs.

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1. Source: Johnson Library, White House Central Files, Confidential File, CO 250, Rhodesia-Nyasaland, Federation of. Secret; No Foreign Dissem. A copy is filed as an attachment to Document 553.
2. This memorandum was produced solely by CIA. It was prepared by the Office of Research and Reports and coordinated with the Office of Current Intelligence; the estimates and conclusions represent the best judgment of the Directorate of Intelligence as of January 1967. [Footnote in the source text.]