551. Intelligence Memorandum1
THE RHODESIAN PROBLEM AFTER THE FAILURE OF THE SMITH-WILSON TALKS
Summary
Prime Ministers Wilson and Smith claim to have agreed on a constitutional settlement for Rhodesia, but they split over who should have effective power within the country during the period of British sovereignty before the granting of independence. London now is asking the UN Security Council to impose selective sanctions on Rhodesian exports. It is trying to come to terms with African demands that sanctions on oil import into Rhodesia also be covered—a move which Britain fears might make it harder to avoid a confrontation with South Africa.
Whatever resolution the UN adopts is unlikely to have much effect on Rhodesia’s economy. It is also unlikely to satisfy African governments, but most of these will probably continue to put priority on their domestic problems. There may be further efforts to end the dispute outside the UN, perhaps including further negotiations between Salisbury and London.
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- Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Country File, Rhodesia, Vol. II, Memos and Miscellaneous, 2/66–12/68. Secret; No Foreign Dissem/Background Use Only. A note on the source text states that the memorandum was produced solely by the Central Intelligence Agency. It was prepared in the Office of Current Intelligence and coordinated with the Office of Research and Reports and the Office of National Estimates.↩