Office of the Historian

381. Telegram From the Department of State to the Embassy in Nigeria1

Washington, April 14, 1967, 2:34 p.m.

175217. Ref: Lagos 8039.2 Nigerian Crisis.

1.
Assessment has received careful study and Department accepts substance of evaluation concerning likelihood East’s and Ojukwu’s intentions as given in first 4 paras. However, some reservations arise here in weighing effect of Eastern secession on rest of country and possible success of economic sanctions against East. Divisive elements in other Nigerian regions could erupt within measurable time after secession by East. Department uncertain that continuing foreign recognition of FMG would alone suffice to deter serious internal trouble while FMG seeks to bring East to heel by economic means. Also less certain that East would collapse within six months or longer.
2.
It has been consensus of Department and Embassy that Nigerian association could only be maintained by mutual agreement of regions. It highly questionable whether one region could be coerced by others to remain in association. Department considers severe economic sanctions would only feed Eastern flames at time when FMG does not present convincing picture of its ability effectively and unitedly to press toward envisaged goal. In view stage crisis has reached, believe it would be most useful if Embassy and UK HICOM could discuss and evaluate situation and for Embassy to report extent of common conclusions.
3.
Because of developments, prospects for SMC meeting to include Ojukwu would appear bleak, wherever held and under whatever auspices. Department considers only prospect now is Ghanaians who may still have sufficient joint credit with disputants to get them together. Commonwealth Secretariat mediation, presumably extending over time, seems unlikely. Thus any proposals which you and UK HICOM might have would indeed be welcome.
Katzenbach
  1. Source: Department of State, Central Files, POL 15–1 NIGERIA. Secret; Immediate. Drafted by Melbourne on April 13 and approved by Trimble. Repeated to London, Accra, Enugu, Ibadan, Kaduna and CINCSTRIKE/CINCMEAFSA.↩
  2. See footnote 3, Document 380.↩