363. Memorandum From Ulric Haynes of the National Security Council Staff to the President’s Special Assistant (Rostow)1
SUBJECT
- Comments on Nigeria Sitrep of 5/30/662
Walt—
Last week the Nigerian Military Government prohibited all political parties and abolished the four federal regions. This action, taken in a climate of unemployment, rising prices, food shortages, poor administration, increased tribalism, etc., triggered the current uprisings in Northern Nigeria.
Both the political parties and the former federal regions were created and supported along distinct tribal lines. They were important safety valves because they provided an outlet for tribal expression and a modern political basis to traditional tribal homelands. The Military Government’s action, therefore, struck at the heart of those institutions which preserved the shaky equilibrium in Nigeria.
It is significant that the current disturbances are well-organized and that they broke out in the North. I would attribute this to the fact that all of the Northern politicians from the previous government got off scot-free. (After the coup, the Military Government did not arrest or detain any Northerners for fear of arousing Northern sentiment over the assassinations of the Federal Prime Minister and the Governor of Northern Nigeria, both Northerners.) These politicians have undoubtedly been involved in covert activities against the Military Government.
Prognosis: Trouble for some time to come, with little USG leverage to influence the situation.