Office of the Historian

311. Memorandum From the President’s Deputy Special Assistant for National Security Affairs (Komer) to the Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs (Williams)1

Washington, February 18, 1966.

SUBJECT

  • Ethiopian Situation

I appreciate your reply of February 11,2 but feel that our dilemma in Ethiopia is that if we don’t take a few risks now we’ll risk a lot more trouble later.

[Page 536]

True, past experience tends to indicate that the Emperor “will probably stay on top” over the short-term. But how long is he likely to be around? Moreover, our interests would certainly be better served by a controlled evolution than a chaotic political upheaval when HIM dies, or even before. As Korry too seems to think, the situation calls for an effort now to try and influence events and the risks of moving now seem to me less than those in doing nothing.

Why not at least come up with a package of reforms designed to (a) reduce the current widespread disaffection among key elements of the population, and (b) increase the likelihood of gradual rather than violent change? Such a brief would examine such problems as succession, constitutional monarchy, representative government, and economic and social reforms.

Then we could decide whether to try out such a brief on the Emperor, perhaps by some high-level personage. It might be a perfect assignment for Gov. Harriman because (a) HIM and Harriman know each other and get along well, (b) HIM considers Harriman his equal in statesmanship, (c) HIM and Harriman belong to the same generation, and (d) HIM would be impressed with our sending our Number One trouble-shooter to see him. I am also mindful of the Gov’s success last May in convincing HIM not to recognize the Chicoms.

If the present pattern continues in Ethiopia, our stake there will be in serious jeopardy. The lack of alternatives suggests that a timely effort to stave off trouble would be worth taking, even if its chances of success are slight. What would we lose? If Ed Korry returns on consultation, the Harriman trip proposal could be tried out on him.

R.W. Komer 3
  1. Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Haynes Files, CHRONO (Haynes), 3/1/65–6/15/66. Secret. A copy was sent to Harriman.↩
  2. Document 310.↩
  3. Printed from a copy that bears this typed signature.↩