Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964–1968, Volume IV, Vietnam, 1966

229. Telegram From the Embassy in Vietnam to the Department of State¹

Saigon, September 14, 1966.

5970. For the President from Lodge. Herewith my weekly telegram:

A. Elections

1. Looking back at the election on last Sunday,² the following can be said:

2. The Viet Cong went all out, both by violent deed and violent word.

3. By deed. There were 166 Viet Cong deeds—acts of terrorism just before and including the election day. This was about nine times the level of activity four days before election and fifteen times the level of activity on an average day in August. GVN casualties from 6:00 p.m. September 10 to 6:00 p.m. September 11 are estimated at nineteen killed and one hundred twenty wounded. The Viet Cong casualties are estimated at eighteen killed, three wounded, and fifteen captured.

4. The government losses were small considering the all-out campaign of the Viet Cong because the GVN on its side went all-out too. It was high tide both ways. The Ky government once again showed its talent in using force and handling troops and police effectively.

5. By word. Then the Viet Cong by word made the issue, pumped it up, and unrestrainedly boasted about their certain success.

6. In quite a miraculous way, the GVN suddenly seemed to grasp the technique of effective publicity, certainly the posters, billboards, radio, television, and dragon dances were skillfully designed to work up interest and to do so in an honest and attractive way.

7. All of this was observed by more than five hundred journalists, diplomatic observers, and Japanese and Korean Parliamentary groups. In particular the Vietnamese people were watching intently. The election was therefore as clean as such a thing can be.

8. Big political defeat. It, therefore, must be set down that the vote on September 11 was an immense vote of “no confidence” in the Viet Cong. They asked for it, and they got it. It is very big—on a par in importance with the departure of nearly 1,000,000 Vietnamese refugees from the north in 1954 rather than live under a Communist regime.

9. The vote also indicates that the government is capable of influencing and providing security for more people than we had thought. We have consistently used the figure of 54 percent, which is up three percent from what it was a year ago, as indicating the percentage of people living under secure conditions—with something over 20 percent under complete Viet Cong domination. Four-fifths of the 5,288,512 registered voters went to the polls on Sunday. The vote must reflect a base of at least ten million people if you add in the children and members of the population who didnʼt vote. This makes the number of people who were living under secure conditions on that day nearer 65 percent than 54 percent.

10. An interesting feature was the marked willingness of people to talk. Never in my service here have I had so many reports come to my desk describing Viet Cong intentions and plans as were told to our people throughout the country by Vietnamese.

11. I also believe that relatively stable prices helped the government in its very successful efforts to arouse public interest in the elections.

12. U.S. troops acted as a shield and prevented large units of the Viet Cong and the Army of North Viet-Nam from interfering in the elections. Had we not been here, there could have been no elections. But, then, had we not come in when we did last year, there probably would be no VietNam either.

13. For us on our side to destroy the redoubts, divide the main force units, and keep them off balance while the Vietnamese on their side do the face to face, elbow to elbow, work of population security is the ideal division of labor. What we have so often talked about actually happened last Sunday—and it worked.

14. In Saigon there were no Americans on the streets, and the Vietnamese had their own city to themselves. This was good all around—especially for us who thus could not be accused of interference in elections. We kept our hand from showing all over the country. My orders to keep it a Vietnamese show and keep away from overt support were followed with great efficiency by all elements of this Mission.

15. We have heard no evidence of fraud in any of the fifty-two election districts. Several candidates known to be favored by the local authorities were defeated. Only twenty military men were elected, a fact that has stopped the rumor that the government planned to pack the convention with military delegates.

16. The Vietnamese people showed amazing courage in the face of record breaking attempts at terror. Embassy officers observed heavy voting at four Saigon polling stations which were grenaded on election eve. An eyewitness reported that in Tra Vinh the population trooped to the polls even while the area was under Viet Cong mortar fire. Only one polling area in the entire country suspended operations for security reasons.

17. The elections also showed the weakness of the militant Institute Buddhists, confirming a long standing suspicion of mine and, I hope, destroying a myth which some journalists have promoted. In addition to the September 6 press conference which I reported last week,³ the Institute militants tried several times to launch anti-election demonstrations and strikes. There was no popular response, and the handful of monks involved were quickly dispersed in every case.

18. Catholic opposition did not materialize. Nothing was heard from Father Hoang Quynhʼs front of all religions for three weeks before the elections. The Catholic citizens bloc never made good on its threat to call for a boycott of the election. On the contrary, Catholic citizens and candidates were very active in the campaign. And thirty Catholic candidates were elected. (This compares with thirty-four candidates who are listed under the broad label of “Buddhists.”)

19. Cynics claim that most people went to the polls simply to avoid future difficulties with the authorities and that the Vietnamese people fear they will be required to show canceled voting cards whenever they come into contact with officialdom. No doubt this is part of the explanation. But if 80.8 percent of the registered voters went to the polls simply because the GVN pushed them into it, it at least shows that the GVN has some authority and standing with the great majority of the population. And adherence by the population to the government is what this political-military war is about. I believe it is nearer the truth to say that the average Vietnamese voter realized that the election was a major contest between the Viet Cong and free Vietnamese. Both sides impressed this fact on him. He made his choice.

20. The GVN not only conducted a most aggressive information campaign and handled military, police, and civil authorities to insure security with great skill; Ky showed political cleverness in his move to spike the Buddhist Instituteʼs guns by sending them a conciliatory letter on election eve and encouraging the Peoples Army Council to try to mediate Institute-GVN differences. He and other government leaders made a series of well timed statements and public appearances designed to arouse general enthusiasm for the elections. We, of course, had been quietly counseling these things on Ky and some of his principal advisors.

21. The convention is truly representative. Regional differences are very important to the Vietnamese, and the Southerners often complain that they are not sufficiently represented in the government. There are forty-four Southerners in the convention. Twenty-seven successful candidates come from North Vietnam, five from North-Central Vietnam, and twenty-three from Central Vietnam. There are four ethnic Cambodian representatives, eight Montagnard tribesmen, and four Chinese. The convention also includes all major Vietnamese religions. We know of thirty-four Buddhist, ten Hoa Hao, thirty Catholic, five Cao Dai, and seven Confucianists among the successful candidates. The others are not clearly identified by religion but probably include people who practice ancestor worship, or are nominal Buddhists or are animists. The convention will include twenty-three teachers, twenty-two businessmen, twenty military, eighteen civil servants, eight lawyers, five doctors, and seven farmers. Twenty-three members have had valuable experience in provincial or municipal councils. The convention will also benefit by the experience of such leading political figures as former chief of state Phan Khac Suu, Saigon City Council President La Thanh Nghe, newspaper publisher Dr. Dang Van Sung, and prominent politician Dr. Phan Quang Dan.

22. The Vietnamese have taken the first step toward stable, democratic government. They still have a long, long way to go. But what we saw on September 11 is reason for confidence.

B. Pacification

23. On September 20, elements of the U.S. 25th Division will start pacification of Long An Province. This has been a longstanding dream of mine going back to 1963. At that time Long An was the only province in Viet-Nam which stretched from Cambodia across to the South China Sea. It has since been divided, but is still important. It is only eight miles south of the Saigon city limits and heavily populated. It will be the biggest test which U.S. troops will have had in fighting against guerrillas under urban conditions—a different thing from the war of movement in the unpopulated, high plateau.

24. I have always suspected that the Viet Cong have some of their toughest and ablest officers in Long An because it is so close to Saigon and has always been such a depressing place for us and, I imagine, an inspiring place for them. In pacifying Long An, we will have to depend on very effective police type measures, a precinct by precinct comb out, and, because it is so thickly settled, we will not be able to use our huge artillery capacity and our air power as we would normally do in open country. A long time ago, General Westmoreland and I agreed that this would be a great thing to do but we have never been strong enough to take it on. Now General Weyand has done so well in Hau Nghia to the west of Saigon that we are all encouraged that he can slip to the south of Saigon where the challenge is much greater. If he does, it should impress Ho Chi Minh. We are going to watch this operation very close to see what lessons we learn for further operations in heavily populated areas.

C. Economic

25. Prices edged up on imported items this week, but the Saigon retail index was down two percent over last week and six percent over amonth ago. Main reason for the decline in the retail index was an increase in rice and pork deliveries in Saigon. Dollars dropped very slightly, from 167 last week to 166 this week.

D. Military

26. Although they attempted to avoid contact with allied forces and concentrated on terror and small unit actions against the elections, the Viet Cong lost over 1,000 killed in action during the reporting period. The 1,166 Viet Cong killed in action this week compares with 885 for last week. All other military indices were favorable.

27. Major operations during the week included: (1) Prairie, a USMC three-battalion operation immediately south of the DMZ intended to thwart a Viet Cong build-up there; (2) Paul Revere III and Su Bok (ROK), search and destroy missions in the Highlands area southwest of Pleiku; (3) Baton Rouge, a combined search and destroy operation in Rung Sai special zone designed to reduce the threat to the Saigon ship channel, and (4) Dan Chi 261B, a continuation of operations Dan Chi 261 in Ba Xuyen/Bac Lieu Provinces conducted by the 21st ARVN Division. The last named operation was a major ARVN victory with cumulative results Dan Chi 261 and 261B—313 Viet Cong killed, 179 Viet Cong small arms, 11 crew served weapons, and nine tons of ammunition captured.

E. Reaction to De Gaulleʼs Phnom Penh speech⁴

28. Prime Minister Ky publicly castigated De Gaulle, and the Vietnamese press generally attacked the French President for his September Phnom Penh remarks. The De Gaulle speech was widely interpreted as a cynical attempt to re-establish French influence in Asia at the expense of Vietnamese freedom.

29. On September 8 two prominent French businessmen in Saigon were arrested on charges of financially aiding organizations which were trying to sabotage the elections. Ky said publicly that the money involved amounted to 50 million piasters and that if investigation showed the two men to be guilty they will be expelled and their businesses nationalized. Many in the French community regard the arrests as a response to the De Gaulle September 1 speech.

F. Americans and Vietnamese killed

30. Final totals of Vietnamese civilians killed and wounded as a result of Viet Cong action during the period September 4 through 10 are not yet available. However, incomplete figures available to us now indicate that at least thirty-four civilians were killed and thirty-three wounded. If we add the 174 Vietnamese military killed during that period to the 34 Vietnamese civilians, the total Vietnamese killed by the Viet Cong is 208. This compares with the 50 Americans killed in the same period.

31. I have just obtained figures of Viet Cong killed in action and captured in the months February to August inclusive. During that period the ARVN killed 17,692 Viet Cong, and the U.S. killed 15,187. The ARVN captured 2,399 Viet Cong, and the U.S. captured 1,521. Free world forces killed 2,135, and captured 236.

Lodge

1. Source: Department of State, Central Files, POL 27 VIET S. The source text does not indicate the time of transmission; the telegram was received at 6:20 a.m. Rostow forwarded the text of telegram 5970 to the President on September 14 under cover of a memorandum stating, “Herewith Lodgeʼs evaluation of the election—much like ours, but very interesting reading.” (Johnson Library, National Security File, Memos to the President—Walt W. Rostow, vol. 12)
2. September 11.
3. In telegram 5433, September 7. (Department of State, Central Files, POL 27 VIET S)
4. On September 1, De Gaulle gave a speech in Phnom Penh, which, among other things, called on the United States to make a unilateral commitment to withdraw its forces from Vietnam by a fixed date. For text, see American Foreign Policy: Current Documents, 1966, pp. 646–648. Lodge commented initially in telegram 5090, September 2, which Rostow forwarded to the President under cover of a September 2 memorandum giving Ruskʼs and his own views on how the United States should react. (Johnson Library, National Security File, Memos to the President—Walt W. Rostow, vol. 12)