Here is a brief updating on our India and Kashmir enterprise. [2 lines of source text not declassified]
We still see little evidence that Peiping is planning any spring attack;
indeed the pace of Indian preparations suggests that they don’t really
expect one either.
Attachment2
Washington,
February 16,
1963.
MEMORANDUM FOR THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE OF THE NATIONAL
SECURITY COUNCIL
SUBJECT
- Status Report of NSC Subcommittee
on Kashmir and Military Aid to India
1. Kashmir
Some progress has been made in the talks between India and Pakistan. A
fourth round has been set for March 9-12. In the third round,3 for the first time both
sides suggested lines by which Kashmir might be
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divided. Under considerable prodding from us India
led off with an offer which included limited but significant concessions
to Pakistan beyond the cease-fire line. This offer suggests that the
Indians may be willing to begin bargaining on a Kashmir settlement based
on territorial division, including the Vale.
Pakistan replied with a proposal which would give Pakistan all of Kashmir
(including the Vale, Ladakh and even certain Hindu majority areas)
except a part of Jammu in the south. This seems to us to be an extreme
initial position from which we would expect the Pakistanis to move
during later bargaining. Since the Pakistani proposal gives all of the
Vale to Pakistan, it provides no clues as to whether or not Pakistan
will abandon its insistence on temporary internationalization followed
by some sort of plebiscite.
Our role has become somewhat more active, although we have neither become
a party to the talks nor introduced specific proposals. Before the third
round, we decided that our best immediate tactic was to urge both
parties to seek a settlement by partition, and to speed the bargaining
process by making concessions. Although the British believe
internationalization of the Vale must ultimately be considered, we
persuaded them to go along with our tactics. Our joint efforts with the
Indians and Pakistanis both before and during the talks seem to have
produced some results. We are now tentatively planning similar efforts
prior to the fourth round, designed to produce a new agreed course of
action.
We continue to believe that with active pressure from the British and
ourselves, bilateral talks can produce additional progress. While we
believe partition offers the best prospect for a Kashmir settlement, we
are keeping our minds open to various possible forms of
internationalization.
We believe that while the most difficult stages of the negotiations are
still ahead, there is a sporting chance they will ultimately succeed.
The immediate hurdle is the next round during which both sides will be
subject to pressures generated in the national legislatures of both
countries, which will be in session at the time. If the talks can be
kept moving through this round and progress further in later
discussions, we foresee a situation in which the British and ourselves
might submit a proposal for a settlement with some chance for
acceptance.
2. U.S. Military Aid to India
Past and currently pending outlays under the $60 million ceiling agreed
on at Nassau total almost $38 million:
- a)
- $19.5 million in air and sea shipments to date (mainly
infantry arms, ammunition and equipment plus two Caribou
aircraft).
- b)
- $5.4 million for C-119 aircraft spare parts (shipment has
begun).
- c)
- $3.1 million (estimated) for the cost of the airlift
operations of our twelve C-130 aircraft in the Ladakh and NEFA areas though 30 June.
- d)
- $5.5 million for small arms, ammunition, and communications
and medical equipment just ordered.
- e)
- $4.3 million for related supply operations and administrative
costs.
These expenditures will cover a substantial portion of our share of the
Nassau commitment to support the conversion of six mountain divisions,
and to improve IAF transport capability.
We foresee further aid, under the $60 million ceiling, for supporting
units for the six divisions, engineering and additional communications
equipment, and repair parts, etc.
3. Air Defense
The joint US/Commonwealth Air Defense Team arrived in New Delhi January
30 and we expect it to complete its study about the end of February.
Canada and Australia are participating as well as the British and
ourselves. We have suggested to the British, Canadians and Australians
that the team’s leaders stop briefly in Karachi to obtain Pakistan’s
assessment of the Chinese Communist air threat. We also think the team
leaders should be prepared generally to discuss air defense requirements
for the subcontinent should a need similar to that in India arise in
Pakistan. We hope to get this squared away in the next few days after we
hear from the other participating governments.
4. Defense Production
Our defense production team arrived in India February 1, talking in
London to the U.K. ordnance team that had visited India early in
January. The U.S. team includes experts in the fields of ordnance,
communications, textiles, and automotive repair. We expect the team’s
report about middle or late March.
5. Other U.S. Government Activities
- a)
- A U.S. Army Medical Research Team is in India to conduct a joint
study with the Indians of the effect of extreme conditions,
especially in Ladakh, on military personnel and equipment.
- b)
- We hope for early Government of India agreement to a visit by a
S/DMICC team—a prerequisite to transfer of U.S. classified material.
To date, limited amounts of non-sensitive classified information
have been made available to India as exceptions to U.S. National
Disclosure Policy.
6. Assistance From Old Commonwealth and Western
European Nations
The British in New Delhi provided us a progress report on their aid
February 13. We have not received details but understand that a ship
with military supplies arrived in India on February 13 and also that the
British will supply much of the signal equipment requested by India. The
U.K. is also considering findings of the RAF Mission to India.
British efforts to encourage substantial Canadian and Australian
participation in the Nassau-based effort have been reasonably
successful.
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The Canadians have
decided to supply on a grant basis military items India requires which
Canada possesses in surplus, and is arranging delivery of certain
aircraft and winter clothing. Australia has completed one shipment of
defense supplies and is discussing further aid with India.
We and the U.K. made strong demarches to France, Germany, and Italy to
enlist their participation. Results to date have not been encouraging.
The French and Italians insist on commerical credit terms in their
discussions with the Indians. There may be some flexibility in the
Italian position so we plan further action in Rome. The Germans, who
provided some winter clothing during the hostilities, are discussing
further assistance with the Indians but have not yet firmed up their
position.
7. Indian Defense Efforts
India’s Ministry of Defense under the Chavan-Chaudhuri leadership is engaged in an intensive
effort to redefine India’s defense plans in the new strategic situation
facing the country. They have not yet firmed up long-term plans and will
probably be unable to do so realistically until they receive definite
indication on the volume of long-term Western aid. In any event, Indian
Defense spending will rise appreciably with a 1963-64 Defense budget
reportedly programed at over $1 billion (approximately one-third higher
than 1962-63). The Indians themselves are also studying how to increase
defense production and have been working closely with visiting foreign
teams on this subject.
8. Policy and Intelligence Studies
In connection with AID’s global policy
review, we are intensively studying India’s long-term economic
assistance requirements in the light of recent developments. The joint
UK/US estimate of Communist Chinese
air capabilities against India was completed in late January and
transmitted to the Indian Government just before the arrival of the air
defense team. The USIB has initiated a
similar study of Communist Chinese ground capabilities. We are also
doing a number of studies on various aspects of possible Kashmir
settlements. The Joint Chiefs of Staff have been requested to make a
strategic appraisal of India and the subcontinent to serve as a basis
for the further development of policy for that area.
