69. Memorandum from Smith (S/P) to John Foster Dulles1
SUBJECT
- National Security Council Meeting, July 14, 1958
The items for discussion at this meeting are four reports called for by NSC action, approved by the President on April 2, 1958, on Measures to Carry Out the Concept of Shelter. There will be oral briefings on the reports (attached as Tabs A to D). High points in them are:
1. ADEQUACY OF GOVERNMENT RESEARCH PROGRAMS IN NON-MILITARY DEFENSE. Principal conclusions are that adequate shielding is the only effective means of preventing radiation casualties; that there is no lack of essential scientific knowledge which warrants postponement of basic shelter construction; that if no action is to be taken on shelter construction, the decision must be based on other than technical reasons; that there is need to investigate many details in order to provide an effective and coordinated shelter system; that since a substantial program of shelter construction could not be completed for a period of years, supplementary research and studies should be carried out while the basic shelter structures are being constructed; and that although a shelter system is the essential core of an effective non-military defense system, it cannot of itself be regarded as sufficient to assure our survival as a nation.
2. THE NUMBER OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS WHICH MIGHT BE TOLERABLE TO WORLD POPULATIONS. The report concludes that there would be adverse effects on populations of non-combatant countries of the Northern Hemisphere as a result of nuclear detonations in general war but they would not be as serious as some have assumed. This is based on the assumption that nuclear weapons used on both sides would have a total yield of 15 million kilotons. (15,000 megatons).
3. SURVIVAL OF POPULATION FOLLOWING A MASSIVE NUCLEAR EXCHANGE. This report assumes an attack on the United States in 1965; fallout shelter will be provided for the population; and the war will be over after one exchange of nuclear weapons. Principal conclusions are: [Facsimile Page 2]
- a.
- Ninety-four million Americans (49 percent of the estimated 1965 population of 192 million) will survive the attack and its aftermath of fallout.
- b.
- Fallout shelter will save 67 million, while 27 million will survive in any event, since the areas where they live will be substantially free from fallout.
- c.
- The people who emerge from fallout shelter will be able to survive in the postattack environment, provided that emergency food supplies have been located at suitable distribution points prior to the attack.
- d.
- The nation will be able to rehabilitate itself, provided that measures have been taken to insure the availability of refined petroleum at key locations.
- e.
- The struggle for survival and recovery will be long and difficult, and the rehabilitated United States may bear little resemblance to the pre-attack nation.
4. STATUS OF SHELTER MEASURES AS OF JUNE 30, 1958. Very little has been done to carry out the concept of shelter approved by the President on April 2, partly because no appropriation has been made for the purpose. It was then estimated that $28.5 million would be required for the program in FY ’59. The figure recently approved by the Budget Bureau is $11.35 million but a request for this amount has not yet been sent to Capitol Hill. Because of the lateness of the time it is possible that no appropriation for shelter will be made at this session of Congress.
COMMENT. If, as indicated in report No. 3 above, fallout shelter could save 67 million Americans in a future war, the Government should move more rapidly and with more vigor to carry out the concept of shelter. This is especially necessary because the States and individual citizens will do little if the attitude of the Executive and Legislative branches of the Government is lukewarm. The President has not yet mentioned the subject publicly.
RECOMMENDATION: That at the NSC meeting, which is expected merely to note these reports, you stress the need for more urgency in the shelter program because of the present and long-term danger to the United States from nuclear war.
Attachments:
Tabs A, B, C and D
- Source: Briefing for July 14 NSC meeting. Top Secret. 2 pp. Eisenhower Library, Whitman File, NSC Records.↩