Foreign Relations of the United States, 1950–1955, The Intelligence Community, 1950–1955

27. Memorandum From Theodore Babbitt, Ludwell Montague, and Forrest Van Slyck of the Office of Research and Evaluation of the Central Intelligence Agency to the Deputy Director of Central Intelligence (Jackson)¹

Washington, October 10, 1950.

SUBJECT

• Plan for a CIA Office of Estimates

1. Pursuant to your oral instructions given on 7 October we submit, in Enclosure A, an outline plan for a CIA Office of Estimates.

2. The end in view cannot be accomplished by reorganization within CIA alone. Successful implementation of this plan will require complementary action to ensure adequate research support by the departmental agencies and a cooperative attitude in the process of final coordination of estimates. The plan should not be put into effect until these requirements have been reasonably met.

3. Details of the structure and strength of the Office of Estimates will depend to a considerable extent on the composition and capabilities of the proposed Office of Research, as well as upon the degree of research support which can be reasonably expected from the departmental agencies, especially OIR. Consequently the elaboration of Enclosure A should be deferred until these matters are sufficiently clarified to afford a sound basis for further planning.

4. Some concrete problems which will arise in the course of reorganization with CIA and related negotiations with the IAC agencies are set forth in Enclosure B.²

Enclosure A³

ROUGH PLAN FOR AN OFFICE OF ESTIMATES

This plan is based on the concepts held in 1945–46 and more recently set forth in the Dulles Report,⁴ NSC 50,⁵ and the “Webb Proposals”.⁶ One point must be made absolutely clear however, in order to avoid the patent defects of a joint committee system. It must be understood by all concerned that the Director at his level and the Assistant Director at his, having heard all the pertinent evidence and argument, have a power of decision with respect to the form and content of the estimate, other interested parties retaining the right to record divergent views when these relate to substantial issues and serve to increase the reader’s comprehension of the problem, and then only.

The plan also presupposes:

a. The establishment of a Research Office in CIA to provide intelligence research reports in fields of common concern (e.g., scientific, economic, geographic).

b. Action to make sure of the availability of research support from the departmental agencies adequate to meet the requirements of the Estimates Office as to both timeliness and content. This condition cannot be met at present.

c. The recruitment of requisite senior personnel as rapidly as possible. The contemplated Office cannot be adequately manned with personnel now in CIA.

d. Thorough indoctrination of the IAC agencies in the new, cooperative concept, and a new start in relations with them. Initiation of the plan in the atmosphere which now exists would very probably be taken by them as an opportunity to impose on the partly imaginary CIA with which they have long contended. This plan will not work except on a basis of mutual confidence and cooperation in the national interest.

Organization and Functions

Office of the Assistant Director

Assistant Director and Deputy Assistant Director

Coordination and Liaison Staff

Administrative Staff

Coordination and Liaison Staff (For supporting argumentation see the Annex to this Enclosure.)⁷

A. Composition.

1. One full-time representative each designated by the IAC representatives of State, Army, Navy, and Air Force respectively.

2. A similar representative of the CIA research office (or part-time representation of each of its major components?).

3. CIA Staff Assistant, NSC Staff.

4. A similar CIA representative with OSD and JIG.

5. Executive Secretariat.

B. Functions.

1. In general, to represent the interest of their respective agencies in the Estimates Office, and the interest of the Estimates Office in their respective agencies.

2. Specifically, to assist the Assistant Director in:

a. Developing the estimates production program.

b. Formulating the terms of reference for particular estimates.

c. Formulating requests for research support and obtaining prompt and effective compliance therewith.

d. Reviewing the estimates produced prior to their submission to the Director and the IAC.

e. Securing IAC concurrence, or at least the formulation of dissent in the light of joint consideration.

Administrative Staff

Personnel, fiscal, and administrative services.

Receipt and dissemination services.

Reproduction services.

Current Intelligence Division

Production of the Daily Summary.

Editing and publishing of other periodical reviews.

Custody of sensitive material.

Maintenance of situation room.

Maintenance of off-hours watch.

Five Regional Divisions: American, North Atlantic, East European, Southern, and Far Eastern.

A. Composition

1. Senior analysts well qualified by aptitude and experience for critical appraisal of current information and research data, for the perception of emergent trends, and for interpretation of the significance of current or anticipated developments. While every sort of expertise—political, economic, military, and area—should be represented, the emphasis should be on appreciation of the effect of all factors in combination.

2. Integral research support for these senior analysts, to assist them by keeping track of current developments, organizing research data from various sources, doing leg work, and drafting under their direction.

B. Functions

1. Surveillance of the developing situation, consultative guidance of the Current Intelligence Division, and the initiation of research projects and of estimates as required.

2. Production of estimates falling within Divisional competence.

3. Provision of appropriate expert participation in task groups formed to produce estimates of broader scope.

Functional Division

Provision of expertise (e.g., scientific, economic, geographic) as required on a functional rather than regional basis.

General Division

A very few analysts of broad competence rather than particular specialization, to concern themselves with the interrelationship of developments falling within the cognizance of two or more divisions and to provide leadership for task groups set up to deal with such problems.

1. Source: Central Intelligence Agency, History Staff, Job 84–T00286R, Box 4, Folder 2. No classification marking. The memorandum is unsigned.
2. Not found.
3. Confidential.
4. See Foreign Relations, 1945–1950, Emergence of the Intelligence Establishment, Document 358.
5. Ibid., Document 384.
6. Ibid., Documents 378, 380, and 404.
7. Not printed.