893.00/11–1549: Telegram
The Chargé in China (Strong) to the Secretary of State
[Received November 15—4:13 a. m.]
Cantel 1281. Chungking’s overcast skies are more than matched by gloom and depression caused by political and military failures.
Earlier hopes of high officials that substantial progress could be made in southwest toward political unity and military unity and reform have been blasted. Postponement by Generalissimo of his visit to Chungking scheduled for early November has served waste valuable time, antagonize local leaders and discourage government officials of all ranks.
Military scene is still one of retreat; defection; uncorrected commands; long lines of “defense” with great gaps; inadequate pay, food and clothing for troops; financial and material stringency and mutual distrust.
Political scene is one of continuing deep division between Generalissimo and Li–Pai groups with no prospect of any healing of the breach; heightening of financial crises as result of lack of local support; gradually inflating silver paper currency which will soon no doubt enter an uninterrupted nose dive; and failure to satisfy local leaders on questions of governorship, their participation in affairs of state, self-defense organization and taxation.
US aid and/or third World War are regarded as only means of saving remnants of government and some of its territory. Which is considered more possible is hard to guess. We are constantly bombarded with argument that even though US aid was squandered in past and is lying on Taiwan unused US has obligation pour in more aid, that China is a US problem, not Chinese problem. A final hope, equally as unfounded as other two, is that Generalissimo will at this last moment be persuaded to throw Taiwan resources into southwest for final stand.
Disintegration is apparent in all fields and may increase in geometrical progression. It is unclear whether attempt will be made to hold Chungking to end, whether government will be able move Kunming, or whether some less well-known city such as Kwangsi temporary [Page 594] capital of Nanning or Hsichang in southeast Sikang will be next seat of government. Pai Chung-hsi holds key to question of length of time Yunnan can be held. If he centers efforts in Kwangsi, Yunnan fate will soon be sealed. If he heeds desire of government that he move into Kweichow and Yunnan, latter can stand for additional period. His movements to date would indicate former course. Pai’s forces may fall apart at seams with further retreat and defections.
At such time as government leaves Chungking, whether for other continental point, for Hainan or for Taiwan, many officials, particularly of lower ranks, we feel will no longer follow. If move is not to Taiwan, many other officials will leave government for Taiwan.
Once government no longer can maintain foothold on continent, it may be expected that it will have to be thoroughly reconstituted by Generalissimo because of belief of many of present ranking officials that a Chinese Government on Taiwan would have no meaning or real purpose and they would not continue with it. Also Generalissimo will desire have own men in office at that time.
Thus we feel that whereas enough of a government may exist while on continent for Embassy to follow and maintain contact new decision by Department will be required with regard to relations with island government.
Sent Department Cantel 1281, Department pass Hong Kong, Taipei, Kunming, Shanghai.