File No. 812.00/3963.
The American Ambassador to the Secretary of State.
Mexico, May 15, 1912.
My dear Mr. Knox: Quickly following the transmission of my despatch of March 20 came the Federal defeats in the battles fought about Torreon, a development of worse conditions throughout the [Page 810] Republic, and especially in the States of Sinaloa, Guerrero, Morelos, and the isthmian part of Oaxaca. The Government’s marked inefficiency and [sic] the conduct of its campaign in the north, and its apparently inadequate and blundering methods in meeting emergencies in other parts of the Republic have had the effect of producing here and perhaps generally a profound skepticism as to its ability to successfully meet the hourly increasing dangers which are encompassing it.
There are foreigners who take a more cheerful view of the situation than this, and who believe that, with the triumph of the Federals in the north, the backbone of the revolution will be broken and order will be restored. I wish that I could share in these views, and I shall be the first to adopt them when assured that they are well founded; but, believing as I do that the disease in the Mexican body politic is inherent, I can see no cure for the situation until the Mexican people as a whole become aroused to the fact that the nation is rapidly drifting into anarchy and until its ablest and best citizens join in active and patriotic support of the present administration. Of this I see no signs at present.
I have noted with some surprise Ambassador Calero’s statement in the American press that conditions in Mexico were improving and that at the present time only one State, viz, Chihuahua, was in rebellion against the Government. No one knows better than Mr. Calero that his optimistic views of the situation here are not justified by the facts. Mr. Calero’s additional statement that there is no anti-American sentiment in Mexico is, I regret to say, not founded on fact. The existence of this sentiment has been the cause of great concern to this Embassy for the past year and a half and the subject of frequent formal and informal discussions with the Foreign Office. The anti-American sentiment has been created by the Mexican press and is largely artificial, but it exists and must be reckoned with. It is true that the sentiment is political and not personal, as Americans treat their Mexican employees better than any other foreigners or Mexicans, and are honest and just in their dealings with them; but considerations of this, character are all swept away by the hostile attitude of the press and the violent expressions of many public men. There is no disposition whatever on the part of either the press or of public men to render either justice or proper consideration to our motives, and there seems to be a complete lack of appreciation of the frequent and valuable services which we have rendered from time to time. I do not believe that this anti-American sentiment can be conjured away by a conciliatory attitude, but it may be repressed and possibly finally obliterated by the maintenance by our Government of a just but firm and stern attitude.
The economic situation in the country grows steadily worse. Some American merchants have closed their concerns and left the country. Others inform me that it is only by the utilization of all their resources and heavy reduction in expenses that they have been able to ward off failure. Banks have great difficulty in maintaining their reserves and at the same time keeping down abnormal rates of exchange. The Government’s securities held abroad, as the Department will perhaps have noticed, have suffered a considerable depreciation and the paper currency issued by the banks under the Mexican banking law is not only being discounted heavily on the [Page 811] American border but is regarded with a certain amount of suspicion in the interior. Considerable suffering has also been caused by the closing of coal mines, smelters and factories and by a marked disposition on the part of the peons to abandon their work on the great estates for the purpose of pillaging and looting on a large or small scale with small or large bands. These conditions must naturally, unless soon cured, bring on a financial crisis which would add heavily to the burdens of the present administration and perhaps imperil its existence.
I ought to call the special attention of the Department to the many irresponsible representations of conditions in Mexico which are being made in some cases by persons with authority, knowledge and prestige, and by others who either hold a brief from the Government or from the revolutionary party or are governed by gratitude for past governmental favors received and anticipation of others yet to come. Some want intervention for selfish consideration and some are opposed to it for similar reasons. The information which these people supply to the press, members of Congress, the President and the Cabinet is with rare exceptions biased by their own interests, influenced by ulterior motives, or originates in an abnormal appetite for the temporary glory of the limelight. There also seem to be some irresponsible representatives of the press here whose attitude appears to be either to influence public opinion in Mexico and the United States with lurid and imaginary outrages or for reasons of self-interest to portray Arcadian conditions which do not exist. I presume the Department estimates the class of people which I am discussing at their true value, and my only purpose in referring to them is that it may be known that the Embassy is fully conscious of the existence of a semiorganized movement both by the Government and by the revolutionists to influence American public opinion.
I am [etc.]