Foreign Relations of the United States, 1958–1960, Western Europe, Volume VII, Part 2

285. Memorandum of Conversation⁰

May 19, 1959.

SUBJECT

• Portuguese Political Situation

PARTICIPANTS

• The Viscount Hood, Minister, British Embassy
• Mr. D. A. Logan, First Secretary, British Embassy
• Mr. Ivan B. White, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Mr. Robert H. McBride, WE
• Mr. Raymond A. Valliere, WE

During the call of Lord Hood at the Department Mr. White took the occasion to exchange views with him on the political situation in Portugal.

Mr. White pointed out that there is no state of crisis in Portugal as the somewhat tense political situation which developed during the June 1958 presidential election, and continued at a lower level for some months thereafter, has recently shown signs of quieting down. However, in view of past events and continuing malaise in Portugal he believed it would be mutually helpful to exchange views on the current situation.

Mr. White then briefly reviewed the Department’s impression of the progress of recent events in Portugal. Pointing to the almost 25% of the popular vote garnered by General Delgado in the 1958 elections, he said this was in effect a protest vote symptomatic of the underlying dissatisfaction of the Portuguese people with the bureaucratic inflexibility of the Salazar regime and its apparent unresponsiveness to their economic, social, and political aspirations. While Dr. Salazar had wrung economic stability from financial chaos, it was achieved at a low level which still leaves the Portuguese with the lowest per capita income in Europe. Subsequent to the election, Mr. White stated, tension continued as a result of Dr. Salazar’s illness and the action of General Delgado and others in taking asylum in various Latin American Embassies.

Mr. White then said that there had been a recent easing off of tension as the Prime Minister regained his health, although still somewhat weak, and the three most important asylum cases were at least temporarily solved when the asylees were permitted to depart from Portugal. Developments in Africa, he added, also tend to lead to internal stability and a coalescing of squabbling regime elements. Although there are some reports of possible factionalism in the Portuguese Armed Forces, Mr. White expressed the belief that a critical situation does not exist at present and the probable successors to Dr. Salazar would continue to be pro-West. He pointed out however that when authoritarian-type governments change all sorts of unexpected odds and ends are apt to bubble up to the surface.

In view of Mr. McBride’s recent visit to Lisbon,¹ Mr. White requested any additional comments he might wish to make on Portuguese prospects.

Mr. McBride stated that it is Ambassador Elbrick’s general view that while there is some talk of dissension in the Armed Forces regarding the succession to Dr. Salazar, with General Botelho Moniz reportedly in favor of Theotonio Pereira and Colonel Santos Costa backing Marcello Cartano, these elements will coalesce rather than permit the traditional opposition outside the regime or the Delgado–Galvao backers to gain control. It is probable, he added, that the succession will be an orderly process. There would be the question of the Communists who, although a small group, are the best organized opposition in Portugal. The Ambassador also believes, according to Mr. McBride, that now that initial asylum cases have been cleared off the Portuguese Government will be much tougher should any further cases arise.

Lord Hood stated that the British appraisal of the Portuguese situation is similar to the U.S. understanding. There are, he said, two views which must be taken—the short term and the long term. In the short term the situation is not as bad as it was a month or two ago. In the long term, however, a problem will arise when Dr. Salazar dies or otherwise vanishes from the scene. Basic confidence in the regime has been shaken by opposition activities during and since the 1958 election and by the Prime Minister’s poor health. While Dr. Salazar’s personal position is still strong, Lord Hood continued, one cannot discount the possibility of disturbances or even a coup. Ambassador Sterling in Lisbon has said that the Estado Novo, after raising Portugal from an economic morass, has been on a tableland and while it is not yet going downhill it has passed the watershed.

Insofar as immediate prospects are concerned, Lord Hood stated that the 1958 election campaign and Delgado’s relative success suggests real discontent in Portugal. This has probably put out of Dr. Salazar’s mind any thought of retirement in the near future. The situation is calmer at the moment and the recent Government announcement of the March plot against it suggests greater Government confidence. Lord Hood added that there was no evidence of Army participation in this plot and he had no recent information regarding possible maneuvering for position by Army elements. The British Government does not expect any trouble in the immediate future, he said, and has decided to go ahead with its plans for a British Trade Fair in Portugal and a visit by Princess Margaret.

In reply to Lord Hood’s query as to whether or not the U.S. saw any connection between developments in Spain and Portugal, Mr. White stated that the U.S. saw no direct connection in the sense of coordination between opposition groups, but it is believed that events in one of these countries inevitably has an effect on the other. Lord Hood agreed with this.

Mr. White then stated that there is little information available as to the thinking among the non-commissioned officers, who might be an important factor. He also stated that detailed knowledge of the Communists cells is lacking and sometimes Communist support is stronger than one realizes, as witness developments in Iraq.

In concluding the discussion Mr. White expressed his appreciation to Lord Hood for the exchange of views and expressed the desire to continue them on appropriate occasions if the British found them helpful. Lord Hood stated that he was pleased with the unanimity of views revealed by the discussion and would certainly look forward to further consultation on this subject.

0. Source: Department of State, Central Files, 753.00/5–1959. Confidential. Drafted by Valliere.
1. McBride visited Lisbon following his participation in the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and West Germany at Paris April 29–30.