34. Memorandum From the National Intelligence Officer at Large and the Director of the Analytic Group, Central Intelligence Agency (Hall) to Director of Central Intelligence Webster and the Deputy Director of Central Intelligence (Gates)1
SUBJECT
- First Intelligence Community Warning Meeting on AIDS, 29 September
It is evident that US policymakers are becoming increasingly interested in the international dimensions of AIDS and that more and more hard facts are being uncovered by the state officers and intelligence collectors. AIDS continues to spread throughout the world, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Some 125 countries are now officially reporting cases to the World Health Organization (WHO), which estimates that some five to ten million people in the world have the AIDS virus and at least three million new cases of AIDS will emerge in the next five years.
The next warning meeting will be held in January.2 You will be notified of the date and time in a future memo. Suggestions for the agenda would be welcomed.
1. Report from the Presidential Commission on AIDS.
Mr. William Walsh, the Commission’s economic and international advisor, gave an overview of the Commission’s work, with emphasis on the international aspects. He cited rough figures on the incidence of AIDS worldwide but said that “basically we don’t know what’s going on,” as data from the World Health Organization are grossly inadequate. He stressed that for its international analysis, the Commission will depend heavily upon information developed by the Intelligence Community.
[1 paragraph (11 lines) not declassified]
2. Latest Medical Developments.
[name not declassified] (CIA/OSWR) surveyed the state of science regarding methods of detecting, preventing, and curing AIDS. Progress [Page 89] towards a vaccine is slow, complicated by the fact that the HIV viruses mutate so quickly. No immediate breakthroughs are expected. Even if a presumedly effective vaccine were discovered tomorrow, it would take several years of testing to prove that it worked. Then it would take several more years to produce and distribute it. Therefore, an effective vaccine probably is not possible before the mid-1990s; for the foreseeable future, the only barriers to the spread of AIDS are those already known.
The Soviets are performing research too, but we have no indication that they are making significant progress. The United States and Europe are the main research centers, and international cooperation is progressing.
[1 paragraph (4 lines) not declassified]
3. AIDS in the Soviet Military.
Dr. Houston Dewey (AFMIC) said that little is known about the extent of AIDS infection in the Soviet military. It is clear, however, that AIDS is considered to be a problem in the military, particularly since in the entire Soviet population of at least 50,000 or 60,000 are believed to be infected. Dr. Dewey believes that blood infection is the most likely means of spreading AIDS in the Soviet military because (a) their medical hygiene is so primitive and (b) their soldiers are permitted relatively little freedom when they are in foreign countries.
[1 paragraph (7 lines) not declassified]
4. Soviet Policies and Disinformation.
Soviet officials are now openly admitting AIDS is a problem in their country.3 Their recognition of this problem was underscored by the recent adoption of a series of measures to combat the disease. While not all details appear clear, a harsh law passed in August provides for a five-year jail sentence for anyone (including foreigners) who have the virus and have sexual contact with another person even if the infection is not passed on. The same legislation allows for an eight-year jail term for those who knowingly transmit the disease. Suspect carriers can be forcibly tested and hospitalized. Soviet domestic media also is urging Soviet citizens to limit their contact with foreigners, particular Americans and Africans. Foreign students who test positive are either prevented from coming to study in the Soviet Union or are being sent home.
The Soviet Union’s disinformation campaign has had remarkable success in some parts of the Third World in blaming the inception of [Page 90] AIDS on US military experiments. But Soviet officials now state they want to cooperate with the United States in combating AIDS, and as a condition for that cooperation the United States has demanded that the campaign of disinformation be halted. There are some indications that AIDS disinformation themes are fading in the Soviet press. But it will be hard to determine whether their sophisticated worldwide campaign “stops,” because the story has already taken root in some Third World countries and continues to change in content.
[1 paragraph (5 lines) not declassified]
5. AIDS in Cuba.
[name not declassified] (CIA/ALA) contrasted Cuba’s official position to the realities that are becoming known. The Cuban government says only four (!) Cubans have contracted AIDS, all of whom have died, that 143 other Cubans have tested HIV positive, and that 114 foreigners have been sent home. In fact, Cuba intends to test its entire population by the end of 1989; and of the first 800,000 tested it is reported that 5,400 tested HIV positive. At least 1,900 foreigners, mainly African students and military trainees, have been deported. The number of deaths is probably in the hundreds and growing.
Castro has taken severe measures, vowing to rid Cuba of AIDS whatever the cost in money or civil liberties. Cubans testing positive are reportedly quarantined for life. One source has claimed that infected Cuban soldiers in Africa are not brought home. Cuba is spending $10 million of its scant foreign reserves (10 percent of its hard-currency health budget) on the fight against AIDS.
Castro has attempted to blame Cuban AIDS infection on the United States, but it is widely known in Cuba that troops returning from Angola are the main source. This knowledge is certain to further undermine public support for Castro’s African adventures.
Warning Issue. Castro may try to foist AIDS victims on the United States. Any new group that he allows to emigrate may contain a high proportion of AIDS carriers and victims.
[1 paragraph (3 lines) not declassified]
6. AIDS’ Impact on the Political Elite of Africa.
[name not declassified] (CIA/OLA) discussed the situation in Zambia, where 395 cases (of which 67 died) have been reported to the WHO. We are confident that these numbers are vastly understated. One cabinet minister and President Kaunda’s son have died of AIDS. Reportedly, all of the ruling party’s officials were tested, but the results have been kept secret. It is speculated that up to half the military is infected with the virus. There is a growing international fear of accepting exchange students and military trainees from Zambia.
[1 paragraph (4 lines) not declassified]
[Page 91]7. Data Base and and Modeling
[name not declassified] (CIA/ORD) presented the interim findings of the interagency working group on the development of a data base and models on AIDS. He presented copies of the proposed variables for the data base, a preliminary estimate on costs, and a list of the highest priority countries to be covered in any data base or model.
The working group started some three months ago and includes representatives from CIA/DI Offices, other intelligence agencies, US Census Bureau, Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), and the State Department. Purpose of the group is to examine the need and feasibility of using quantitative measures to assist analysts in assessing the worldwide dimensions of the AIDS. Several agencies—NSA, OSD, DIA, and the Intelligence Community Staff—have tentatively pledged funds to support a data base and a model. CIA’s Office of Research and Development and Office of Information Resources are continuing to look at ways to streamline both the scope and cost of the current proposal. Towards that end, they will review the report of the upcoming National Academy of Science’s conference on modeling which will evaluate current research in the private sector. The Center for Disease Control also will be reviewing and commenting on the proposal within the next month. ORD and OIR expect the final version of the proposal will be ready for review and any decisions on funding by various agencies in November.
- Source: Central Intelligence Agency, National Intelligence Council, Job 91B00776R: Policy Files, Lectures, Briefings Files (1980–1989), Box 3, Folder 8. Secret; [handling restriction not declassified]. The memorandum was printed on National Intelligence Council letterhead and identified Hall as both the National Intelligence Officer at Large and the Director of the Analytic Group.↩
- No record of this meeting has been found.↩
- See Document 30.↩
- Hall signed “Kate” above her typed name.↩