245. Paper Prepared in the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Department of State1
(U) AFRICAN DROUGHT ABATING?
Summary
Large parts of Africa are getting relief from the major continent-wide drought. Above-normal rains have fallen in Africa south of the Equator during the current growing season, and the first estimate of Zimbabwe’s corn and sorghum crops is “excellent.” Rains have not yet returned to the famine-stricken regions north of the Equator; they are not due until June. However, the return of rain to the south offers reason to hope that the big African drought is ending. Nonetheless, the Sahel2 may remain in the grip of its long dry cycle.
Even if rains return to famine areas in the north, food assistance will continue to be crucial in holding down the death toll until displaced populations can return to their land, crops are harvested, and food stocks rebuilt. Equally important, unless the productivity of Africa’s primitive agricultures can be raised in the next few years, the continent’s high population growth rate could make its next drought even more damaging than this one.
Weather experts now feel confident that the current drought was produced by a global weather disturbance which began in 1983—a severe “southern oscillation,” or El Nino (a global change in normal weather patterns that often triggers drought in Africa). The continental drought was far too extensive to have been caused by such localized phenomena as deforestation and overgrazing, though these may have been accentuating factors in the Sahel subregion.
Climatologists see no strong evidence that the continent is undergoing a permanent climate change. Because Africa’s rainfall has always been highly variable, with the average precipitation in many countries just enough to grow crops, African farm production has always been highly sensitive to marginal weather changes.
[Omitted here is the remainder of the report.]