233. Memorandum From the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (McFarlane) to President Reagan1
SUBJECT
- SNIE on African Famine
Issue
To review Director Casey’s Special National Intelligence Estimate (SNIE) on Famine.
Facts
The attached copy of the recently completed SNIE on Famine2 points out that the magnitude of the famine in Africa is immense—14 to 20 million people will be at risk during the next year. Food commitments by the donor nations fall short of meeting this crisis and the Soviet Union will not offer any significant aid even to its client states. The SNIE notes that “key to significant improvements in food production is a profound change in indigenous government policies to improve agricultural pricing, (and) eliminate state-controlled marketing boards. . . .”
Director Casey urges the appointment of a distinguished individual to head an upgraded task force on famine and to present a comprehensive program to the Hill and to our allies.
Discussion
I agree with Director Casey’s assessment of the famine and the theme inherent in his recommendations. Through the “Food for Progress” study and various NSC internal reviews, we have identified the following actions which could help alleviate the long-term emergency food situation in Africa:
—Adoption of the “Food for Progress” initiative to spur agricultural reform based on free market principles.3
[Page 629]—Emphasis on allied food aid efforts in the summit context to attempt to gain agreement on a central western famine forecasting capability and EC prepositioning of food in the Third World as we are doing.
—The possible creation of a Special Ambassador position on Food Aid.
—The linking and focusing of our new supplemental emergency food aid efforts to countries willing to undertake needed structural reforms in agriculture to prevent the current crisis from recurring.
—In a related matter, a big push for a “food truce” in the insurgent dominated areas of Ethiopia to get food into Eritrea and Tigray.4
As the study rightly points out, Ethiopian policies and practices have exacerbated the problem. If we provide massive assistance, we have the obligation to try to make that relief effective.
- Source: Reagan Library, African Affairs Directorate, NSC: Records, AF Famine [12/03/84–12/31/84]. Secret. Sent for information. Drafted by Levine and Ringdahl. Poindexter initialed for McFarlane. There is no indication that Reagan saw the memorandum.↩
- Not attached. In a December 11 memorandum to Reagan, Casey transmitted the SNIE. (Central Intelligence Agency, National Intelligence Council, Job 87T00573R: Intelligence Publications Files (1979–1986), Box 7, Folder 99.↩
- See Document 236.↩
- See Document 232.↩