154. Intelligence Memorandum Prepared in the Central Intelligence Agency1
Polymetallic Sulfides: Law of the Sea Implications [portion marking not declassified]
Key Judgments
The polymetallic sulfide deposits recently discovered along rifts in the sea floor of the eastern Pacific Ocean are a potentially large source of copper, zinc, silver, gold, platinum, and gallium and a less important source of other metals like iron, sulfur, and molybdenum. The current US policy interest in this discovery relates primarily to the attempt of some 150 nations at the Third UN Conference on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS III) to forge a comprehensive treaty governing the exploitation of ocean resources lying in international waters: This week they will be discussing the moratorium on seabed mining that the United States objects to. [portion marking not declassified]
The present Draft Convention was largely developed before the polymetallic sulfide deposits were discovered and thus does not adequately treat their exploitation. The United States is seeking to revise the Convention to remove objectionable provisions concerning the mining of polymetallic nodules. Unless precise language is crafted for polymetallic sulfide mining, regulation would be left to unpredictable action by the International Seabed Authority established by the Convention, and exploitation of these resources would be hindered or delayed. [portion marking not declassified]
Cost estimates for polymetallic sulfide mining can be nothing more than guesses at this point because the technology for mining hard rock at depths of 2,000 to 3,000 meters is not yet developed. If current relative prices hold through the 1990s, only deposits with high gold, silver, and platinum content are likely to be of commercial interest and even these probably would not be mined before the turn of the century and thus are not likely to impact soon on world metal markets. [portion marking not declassified]
Early assays—and they are very preliminary—suggest that recovery of gold, silver, platinum, and gallium, even from only one or two [Page 448] polymetallic sulfide deposits rich in these metals, might disrupt one or more of their markets, lower prices, and adversely affect South Africa and the Soviet Union if the deposits are extensive. Markets for the other minerals mined would be much less affected. [portion marking not declassified]
Polymetallic sulfide mining would help those countries, including the United States, bordering the eastern Pacific. The West European countries and Japan are not as favorably situated with respect to known deposits, but might use their technological know-how in joint ventures with less developed nations. France, West Germany, and the United States appear to be the leaders in deep sea exploration and may be seen as possible leaders in mining polymetallic sulfide minerals. The United States has an advantage in hard-rock mining and deepwater dredging technologies that might be useful. [portion marking not declassified]
The Soviet Union would certainly want to keep its options open and may have an interest in mining polymetallic sulfide minerals. Wide publicity regarding these minerals may explain the increased Soviet interest in oceanographic research and mining technology and the more appreciative attitude the Soviets have toward the US position at UNCLOS III. [portion marking not declassified]
This week they gave their enterprises equal legal footing with their Western competitors by issuing a decree allowing them to make claims and initiate prospecting.2 If UNCLOS III fails to produce a treaty, Moscow may join the West in a reciprocating-states agreement on seabed mining. [portion marking not declassified]
[Omitted here is background information regarding deep seabed mining.]
US Interests
Polymetallic sulfide deposits are of current interest primarily because of the role they might play in the present Law of the Sea debates. If the Conference does not craft a clear text on the mining of these metals, a Draft Convention could go into the lengthy ratification process without polymetallic sulfide mining rules and regulations. These would have to be added by amendment later, and mining could be delayed until their adoption. [portion marking not declassified]
The US lead in hard-rock mining and deepwater dredging technologies might afford it an important advantage in the exploitation of polymetallic sulfide minerals. But environmental considerations are [Page 449] likely to discourage any processing of these ores on the west coast, and transport to facilities in the interior may be costly. The latter are old and themselves environmentally troublesome. Metal markets have not been robust enough to warrant costly pollution control programs, and copper and zinc companies claim that they will close their smelters and refineries, shifting this processing to other countries, rather than retrofit them. If the more highly profitable ocean sulfide deposits are exploited, the copper and zinc extracted as a byproduct might help revitalize these US industries. Also, exploitation of polymetallic sulfide minerals could considerably reduce or eliminate US dependence on imports of many of the metals found in the deposits, including, in the case of platinum and vanadium, a potentially dangerous reliance on South Africa and the Soviet Union. [portion marking not declassified]
The United States and its allies could find the Soviet Union a well-prepared competitor in mining ocean sulfides. The Soviet Union is largely self-sufficient in the metals found in the polymetallic sulfide deposits. [3½ lines not declassified] Moreover, the USSR has also recently adopted a slightly more favorable attitude toward US objections concerning the current LOS Draft Convention. There are even indications that the USSR might not accede to the Convention unless the Western industrial countries and Japan do so. At this time Moscow’s principal interest is probably to preserve its options with respect to any minerals that might be available from the seabed. [portion marking not declassified]
The Soviet decree on seabed mining issued this week allows its enterprises to stake claims to seabed mineral deposits lying in international waters; prospecting and mining will not be allowed until 1 January 1988. By this act, the Soviets are putting themselves on an equal footing with the industrial nations that have already adopted similar national legislation. Now, Soviet firms may establish property rights as Western firms may now do. If UNCLOs III fails to produce a treaty, Moscow might join the West in a reciprocating-states agreement. [portion marking not declassified]
- Source: Department of State, Marine Law and Policy Division, Subject and Country Files, Law of the Sea, 1981–1982, Lot 92D622, 40.100 Polymetallic Sulfides (1982). Secret. This paper was prepared in the Office of Global Issues. A note on the title page reads: “Information available as of 20 April 1982 has been used in the preparation of this report.” [less than 1 line not declassified]↩
- In telegram 993 from New York, April 20, USUN transmitted the text of the Soviet statement. (Department of State, Central Foreign Policy File, D840753–0014)↩