141. Memorandum From Robert Pastor of the National Security Council Staff to the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Brzezinski) and the President’s Deputy Assistant for National Security Affairs (Aaron)1
SUBJECT
- Nicaragua Update
Somoza plans to send a high-level mission to South America to explain his case to various governments. The mission, to be headed by Defense Minister Nogueira, will visit Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, and Chile. Given the dire economic straits Nicaragua now faces, the mission will also probably seek financial and military assistance. State is getting out a cable to our Embassies in these countries asking our Ambassadors to bring their Foreign Minister up-to-date on our mediation effort.2 Vaky also promised to get the cable out to Mansfield today on General Gutierrez.3
Within the next few days, Nicaragua expects to receive a $20 million loan from the Central American Common Market stabilization fund. Separate lines of credit may be extended by the governments of Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, though the latter’s Minister of Planning denies that his government is considering such a request. The GON decision to withdraw its request before the IMF for the CFF loan was undoubtedly influenced by the knowledge it would receive the $20 million common market loan and perhaps other financial assistance.
The U.S. Army officers from Southcom will be visiting Managua shortly to review the emergency evacuation plan for U.S. official personnel. They will also be examining the possibility of withdrawing the [Page 381] MILGP should that option be chosen in the future. The officers will travel in civilian clothes and will coordinate their activities fully with the Embassy.
Vaky spoke with Orfila briefly today about the possibility that the OAS may be called upon to supervise a plebiscite in Nicaragua. Orfila was aware of the possibility, and said that the OAS is looking into it. There will, however, be a problem of who funds it.
In Bowdler’s brief meeting with the President today, Bill left with the impression that the President would find some more historical background on the current situation in Nicaragua very useful. I spoke to Vaky about that, and we agreed that it would be very useful to the President if he could meet with someone who could give him some insights both into the person, Somoza, and into the current situation there and how it relates to previous Caribbean crises. I will try to work on such a memo, and see if I can find a person who could give the President that understanding. We should keep in mind that while the President has been receiving memoranda on Nicaragua from us, he has never really—at least to my knowledge—engaged in a give-and-take discussion on these issues in the way that we have. Perhaps an NSC meeting instead of a PRC meeting would be appropriate.
- Source: Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Brzezinski Material, Brzezinski Office File, Country Chron File, Box 35, Nicaragua, 10–12/78. Secret. Brzezinski wrote to Aaron at the top of the page: “DA This will split LA right down the line. ZB.” Aaron wrote to Brzezinski: “ZB—If an effort to develop a moderate alternative to Somoza fails and a Castroite takes over they will reunite in criticizing us. DA.”↩
- These instructions were delivered in telegram 291407 to all American Republic diplomatic posts, November 16. (National Archives, RG 59, Central Foreign Policy File, P840139–1838)↩
- Brzezinski placed a vertical line in the right-hand margin next to this paragraph. Vaky sent his message to Mansfield about Gutierrez in telegram 290120 to Tokyo, November 15. (National Archives, RG 59, Central Foreign Policy File, [no film number])↩