264. Telegram From the Department of State to the Mission to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization1
121506. Following repeat Kabul 1521 sent SecState, Ankara, Beijing, Berlin, Bonn, Colombo, Dacca, Havana, Islamabad, Kathmandu, London, Moscow, New Delhi, Paris, Prague, Rome, Sofia, Tokyo, CINCEUR, CINCPAC, USICA, and USUN on 5 May.2
Quote: Secret Kabul 1521. CINCEUR and CINPAC also for POLADs. Subject: Two Years of Leftist Rule in Afghanistan; Status, Prospects and What it Means for the U.S.
1. (S—Entire text) Department repeat as desired.
2. Summary: In the two years since President Daoud was overthrown and slain by some of the same leftists who helped him stage a bloodless coup ousting King Zahir in 1973, the quality of life in Afghanistan and any sense of security and hope for the future on the part of the Afghan people have steadily eroded. Fear, trepidation about the future, and a loathing of the Karmal regime pervade the atmosphere in this strife-ridden, poverty-stricken country. The “great Saur revolution,” cautiously accepted by many Afghans in mid-1978, is fraying at [Page 711] the edges, if not tottering, and is the object of widespread and bitter ridicule. No one in Afghanistan believes the Karmal regime would last 48 hours if the Soviet troops were to pull out now. The failure of Karmal and his colleagues in the regime to win the support of any significant element of Afghan society and the continued crumbling of the Afghan military virtually guarantee a growing Soviet military presence here, no matter what the cost to the USSR in global terms. As they are sucked deeper and deeper into the morass of Afghanistan, the Soviets will inevitably be faced with new points of basic decision and ever-increasing frustration, with the concomitant inclination to try to do everything themselves. No matter what they decide to do, they will find their Afghan adventure increasingly costly. Their task will be made no easier by the ongoing rifts among the Parcham and Khalq wings of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party of Afghanistan. It is unlikely that they will be able to fashion a broad-based governing group, and there are few bets that Babrak Karmal will die a natural death. In these circumstances, the United States and its allies should continue to treat this regime with circumspection and try to make the Soviet invasion as costly as possible for Moscow. End summary.
[Omitted here is the body of the telegram.]