195. Memorandum of Conversation1
SUBJECT
- Summary of Dr. Brzezinski’s and Mr. Christopher’s Meeting with Crown Prince Fahd of Saudi Arabia
PARTICIPANTS
- Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs
- Warren Christopher, Deputy Secretary of State
- U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia John West
- Gary Sick
- Arnie Raphel
- Crown Prince Fahd
- Prince Saud
- Dr. Pharaon
- Mr. Mansouri
- Abdul Aziz Thunayyan
- Notetaker
Dr. Brzezinski noted that there had been many changes in the world during the year since he had last been here in Riyadh.
Prince Fahd said that he hoped the changes were in the interests of the free world.
Dr. Brzezinski said not everything that happened last year was good; however, we were encouraged by the results of the Islamic Conference and hope that this part of the world has been encouraged by the President’s State of the Union address.
Prince Fahd said nobody in his right mind would have expected the Soviet invasion in Afghanistan.
Dr. Brzezinski noted that he had visited the refugee camps in Pakistan.
Prince Fahd said that this was a heartbreaking sight. It was the results of the invasion. It was most unconscionable to resort to outright invasion as opposed to other means that were available. He wondered what news the United States had of the internal nationalistic resistance.
Dr. Brzezinski said that every indication we have is that the resistance is growing steadily. Over the last few days there has been an increased number of clashes between the Soviets and Resistance Forces. The Afghan troops have largely been passive and disarmed but recently there have been direct clashes between Afghan soldiers and Soviet forces.
Prince Fahd said this is a very significant development and will give a shot in the arm to the resistance.
Dr. Brzezinski said that our present estimates show that there are 73,000 Soviet troops in Afghanistan, perhaps up to 92,000.
Prince Fahd said that these indications suggest that they really got in in force.
Dr. Brzezinski said that some Soviet troop deployment suggests that they might be considering operations against northeastern Iran.
Prince Fahd said that there is nothing that is not likely anymore.
Dr. Brzezinski said we had a good talk with the leaders of Pakistan. The President asked us to lead a delegation there and tell them that if there was a threat to the territorial integrity of Pakistan, we would not let them stand alone. They understand this. We left a military team to examine their needs and we also discussed with the Pakistanis the best way to make certain that the Soviets are not able to consolidate their gains in Afghanistan.
Prince Fahd said that is very good.
Dr. Brzezinski continued I know that some of these matters were discussed with Prince Turki.2 We would also like to increase our psychological propaganda to the Muslims.
[Page 553]Prince Fahd said that is very important.
Dr. Brzezinski continued that Ambassador West will talk to Prince Saud about leasing transmitter time because we feel that the indignation of the rest of the world is shared quietly by the 50 to 60 million Moslems in the Soviet Union.
Prince Fahd said that was true. They have the feeling that this Islamic fervor is against any one act of invasion such as that by the Soviets. He had not witnessed a comparable reaction to any other single act. He thought that the Soviets had not imagined that the reaction would be so intense and so deep. This is very important. They have witnessed an international outcry all around the world.
Dr. Brzezinski said that we think this calls for a response on many levels. Most importantly is the level of the Islamic world. We are also prepared to respond in several ways to help Pakistan militarily and economically. We intend to strengthen our military presence in this part of the world. We are not asking for bases from anyone but we are negotiating with a number of countries for the use of facilities so we are able to respond quickly and effectively to any threat. We will respond on the level of psychological broadcasts as well. We are prepared to work with every country in the region to strengthen security. We indicated to the Pakistanis that the 1959 agreement is still valid but we are also planning to work with other countries to organize economic and military assistance for them.
Mr. Christopher said that our trip to Pakistan was better than anticipated but also different than anticipated. The President had announced that he was prepared to go to Congress to seek nearly a half a billion dollars in assistance, including two hundred million dollars in military credits and other economic assistance. Somewhat to our surprise the Pakistanis asked us not to send this until they had a better understanding of what the reaction of their other friends would be. No doubt Saudi Arabia is aware that Pakistan has enormous needs in military and economic fields. Their balance of payments deficit is greater than a billion dollars a year and even more urgently the Pakistan army needs to be reoriented back to the West, since it is now focused mostly in the East. This move requires some change to the Pakistani military and increased infrastructure. So now it is of great importance to know what other nations can do. We would ask your comments on your evaluation of Pakistan’s needs and your own discussion with the Pakistanis.
Prince Fahd said that Saudi Arabia had for many years been giving Pakistan very good aid in military and economic fields trying to be as supportive and helpful to Pakistan as they can possibly be. They know that if they buoy up Pakistan economically that people will be able to breathe more easily. Also, they are prepared to do whatever they [Page 554] can in the military field. They firmly believe that Pakistan should be supported to the maximum possible extent. Psychologically now is the time to rally to Pakistan’s support. If friendly states dilly dally at this point future steps will be more difficult.
Mr. Christopher said he agreed. President Carter is prepared to take unprecedented moves to support Pakistan.
Prince Fahd said that they had felt this from President Carter’s statements and they are sure that the Pakistani people also feel it. Also it is very important vis-a-vis the Soviets, they did not imagine the response would be so firm and intense. Maybe the Soviets thought they could do this thing and get only some brief reaction then perhaps in the future go on to Pakistan with only a brief outcry. That is why the Saudis have a strong feeling that the people of the world recognize that the US lion has begun to stir. Of course we realize that the aim of the Soviets is to get to warm waters so in fact this aggression makes a later move toward the Persian Gulf more possible. He noted that during Nixon’s first tenure he had forewarned the American Administration about this very thing.3 Just to illustrate graphically the Soviets first thought that they would make use of Iraq as a launching pad against this part of the world. Now they have switched and are using the PDRY for this reason. Their failure in Iraq led them to attack Afghanistan.
[Omitted here is discussion unrelated to Afghanistan.]