393. National Intelligence Estimate 52–1–75, Washington, January 9, 1975.1 2
Washington, January 9, 1975
PROSPECTS FOR THAILAND AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE US
PRECIS
- — The government which emerges from the elections this January will be a weak and unstable coalition that is likely to undergo frequent changes of alignment and personalities in the next year or so.
- — Whatever the changes, the government will remain conservative in orientation and will be strongly influenced by the Thai military.
- — It will, however, be more responsive to public opinion than was the former military regime.
- — For the next year or so, there is no chance of a government emerging that would move Thailand significantly to the left.
- — The Thai Government will face domestic economic problems which are in part a reflection of recent global economic difficulties, but in Thailand’s case the economy has the basic strength to weather the problems ahead.
- — In the course of the next year, it is likely that the weakness and instability of the new parliamentary system will lead the military to play a stronger behind-the-scenes role in the government.
- — There would have to be a marked deterioration of public order and governmental effectiveness, however, before the military would attempt an open return to military rule.
- — For security reasons the Thai will continue to accept the need for a limited US military presence in Thailand, at least for the next year. But they will probably urge that the gradual reduction of US forces continue, while accepting US recommendations on the scope and pace of those reductions.
- — The Thai will continue to see value in a close relationship with the US, but they will seek significant readjustments of that relationship.
- — They will be less willing to cooperate across-the-board on US policy matters in Asia in the next year because of a resurgence of nationalistic sentiment that maintains Thailand has become too dependent on the US.
- — They will seek to reduce US special privileges in Thailand.
- — There is a chance now that the Thai might impose restrictions on the use of Thai bases for air combat or combat support missions over Indochina. As US aid levels and military strength in Thailand are further reduced that chance will increase.
- — Over the longer term, Thai foreign policy is likely to move further away from its close relationship with and dependence on the US.
[Omitted here is the body of the paper.]
- Source: Central Intelligence Agency, OPI 122 (National Intelligence Council), Job 79R01012A, Box 497, Folder 6, NIE 52–1–75. Secret. Concurred in by all members of the U.S. Intelligence Board except the FBI, who abstained. Thailand’s election occurred on January 26.↩
- The estimate assessed the implications for the United States in light of the political situation in Thailand.↩