429. Telegram 327 From the Embassy in Jamaica to the Department of State1
327. Subj: Manley at One Year.
1. Summary. Prime Minister Manley, though facing large and growing problems, has fared rather well and remains popular. His approach to economic issues has been largely orthodox, with some signs of success. He is in firm command of his government, but beset by skill shortages which affect his ability to carry through.
[Page 1101]2. Following a bitterly fought parliamentary election campaign, Prime Minister Michael Manley, basking in the glow of an overwhelming victory, took office almost one year ago on March 2, 1972. Although a full year has not elapsed since that time, the Embassy wished to comment on Manley’s first year prior to the Ambassador’s departure.
3. Personal Popularity. The very high personal popularity of Michael Manley remains undiminished. At virtually all of his public appearances on the island, he is greeted by cheering crowds, anxious to shake his hand or to speak with him. His popularity remains highest with the rural people and urban working classes, but he is also highly respected by many substantial members of the business community and middle class, who respect him and his government for their comparative honesty. The conservative business community has accepted, albeit grudginly on occasion, the austerity measures of the past six months, understanding their necessity in view of Jamaica’s foreign exchange position. The youthful sector of the business community, many of whom heavily backed Manley’s election campaign, continues its enthusiastic support for Manley’s efforts to transform the economy and bring about greater economic democracy—“enlightened self-interest.” One group which is conspicuously skeptical of the intentions of the Manley government, however, is the Chinese community. Despite the fact that many Chinese have attained positions of high responsibility in the Jamaican business world, have been given important posts in the Prime Minister’s party and government, and apparently supported the PNP in the election, very many middle class Chinese traders and merchants are increasingly conscious of their exposure and high vulnerability, should things change drastically in Jamaica. They are also probably nervous about the arrival of a PRC Mission in Kingston, fearing that pressures will be brought to bear on them to support China.
4. Leadership of Government. In the early months of his administration Manley was beset by a series of pronouncements and actions by some of his more overzealous followers and Cabinet ministers. The public reaction, particularly in the business community, to these events was sufficient to cause Manley to rein in his wayward supporters, and over the last several months it appears that he has been able to assert firm control over the activities of his followers. Knowledgable observers have attributed the behavior of these subordinates to a lack of experience in dealing with the everyday problems of government and believe that, with more experience under their belts, they have settled down to their jobs with dedication and a sense of realism. A case in point is the Minister of Industry and Tourism, P. J. Patterson, who over the years has been characterized as somewhat of a radical, but since assuming office, has been pragmatic, and even dynamic, in carrying out his responsibilities. Similarly, the flamboyant Tony Spaulding (Hous [Page 1102] ing) and Dudley Thompson (Minister of State) have recently approached their jobs in a responsible and non-ideological fashion.
5. Economy. The state of the nation’s economy and its prospects has been the major headache for the Prime Minister. For without a vigorous economy the unemployment problem, with its potential for social disorder, can only worsen. Manley inherited a rapidly deteriorating balance of payments situation. He has moved vigorously, if belatedly, to correct this, but in doing so has somewhat damaged confidence in the Jamaican economy and dampened economic growth. He has moved to expand domestic industry and food production, however, which if successful, could contribute significantly both to Jamaica’s balance of payments and general level of economic activity. Manley has given significant attention to tourism and its benefits to the economy and continues to be aware (probably painfully) of the immense importance of the bauxite/alumina industry. The policies he has adopted to date to deal with Jamaica’s problems have been orthodox answers to balance-of-payments crises and imaginative, though sometimes seemingly wishful, economic development schemes.
6. Foreign Relations. In the election campaign, Manley promised he would follow a foreign policy based on Jamaica’s own interests. Only the Jamaicans can define this, and during 1972 the Jamaican Government decided that the establishment of relations with Cuba and China would serve those interests. The reaction of Jamaicans to these moves was mixed, with the opposition screaming “communism” and Manley supporters pointing to the emerging Jamaican leadership in the Third World and the economic benefits to be gained. In the cold light of day, nothing has changed drastically; Manley still speaks of the importance of U.S.-Jamaica relations, and the island has not been invaded by Communist subversives. The major result has been that probably a large number of Jamaicans feel some satisfaction in Jamaica having taken distinctively independent acts without bringing down the wrath of Uncle Sam.
7. Health and Mood. The Prime Minister appears as vigorous as ever. He is still by a long shot the most effective public speaker on the island and relishes the opportunity to mix with the people. He is relatively honest (the Embassy hears from many sources of the lack of corruption in the Manley government) and so far demands the same of his subordinates. He has suffered a few illnesses in the past year—a minor eye infection and several bouts with the flu—but seems to be in generally good health. Since mid-January he has been on the wagon, to the relief of some of his closest confidants, and has undertaken a physical fitness campaign—he jogs daily.
8. Michael Manley has survived a difficult year with his popularity virtually undiminished. He is still faced with a shortage of technical [Page 1103] and managerial skills, so vital to translating his grandiose words into action. He is also faced with the problem of energizing his people—whether it be to participate in the literacy campaign, to increase productivity, to work their fields, or to practice family planning. Whether he has the perseverance to follow through with these problems will have to be measured a year from now.
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Summary: The Embassy reviewed the performance of Jamaican Prime Minister Michael Manley during his first year in office.
Source: National Archives, RG 59, Central Files, 1970–1973, POL 15–1 JAM. Confidential. Repeated to Bridgetown, Georgetown, and Port of Spain. In telegram 3425 from Kingston, October 3, Chargé Hewitt characterized Manley as “one of the most magnetic and commanding figures I have met and dealt with,” though he was concerned by the Prime Minister’s “apparently limited grasp of the details and problems of government.” (Ibid., Central Foreign Policy File, [no film number])
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