387. Memorandum From the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Kissinger) to President Nixon1
SUBJECT
- Brandt May Have Throat Cancer
Director Helms has sent us a highly sensitive report2 which suggests that Chancellor Brandt may have cancer of the vocal cords. [3 lines not declassified] it revealed a malignance “indicative” of cancer. But his diagnosis is tentative, and further experiments are to be made. He recommended that Brandt cut back on his activities for several weeks. As of December 1, he had not told Brandt of his diagnosis but at least four other Social Democratic leaders have been informed. So the Chancellor must know by now.
The Chancellor seems to be conducting business normally, however. Last week he received Senator Humphrey, who, we understand, found him in apparent good health. He has also been meeting with the SPD parliamentary group and preparing his state of the nation speech. Possibly his reported condition accounts for his decision not to travel to East Berlin for the December 21 signature of the GDR–FRG Basic Treaty. On December 18, he is scheduled to appear publicly in the Bundestag to accept designation as Chancellor. This will provide an opportunity to judge the state of his health.
If Brandt retires, is incapacitated or dies, the most likely successor is Helmut Schmidt, who was Defense Minister from 1969 until last summer and since then Minister of Economics and Finance, and whom you met in November 1969 when NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group met in Washington. At the moment it looks as if the succession would be smooth, although Schmidt is less popular with the Social Democrats’ steadily stronger left wing than Brandt is. However, he will probably exercise firmer control over the party as a whole than the Chancellor has. He is as popular, perhaps even more popular, in the country at large. He is a good and longstanding friend of the United States and [Page 1099] as widely experienced in US-European politics, economics and strategy. He is more his own man intellectually too, less receptive to the ideas and projects of Brandt’s close advisors like Bahr. He has, however, been critical of some of our foreign economic policies and can be quite hardnosed as a negotiator.
- Source: National Archives, Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files, Box 687, Country Files, Europe, Germany (Bonn), Vol. XII. Secret; Sensitive; Eyes Only. Sent for information. Butterfield stamped the memorandum to indicate that the President had seen it. No drafting information appears on the memorandum. Sonnenfeldt forwarded a draft to Kissinger on December 14. (Ibid.)↩
- Dated December 5; on December 12 Helms also sent Kissinger a memorandum analyzing the West German leadership question. Both are attached but not printed.↩