528. National Intelligence Estimate1
NIE 37–64
Washington, January 22, 1964.
AFGHANISTAN
Conclusions
- A.
- For the last decade, Afghanistan has been undergoing a substantial economic and social modernization. Since the removal from office of Prime Minister Daud in March 1963, modernization has started in the political field as well, under a cabinet which for the first time in 30 years is not headed by a member of the royal family.
- B.
- The new cabinet has no political base save in the support of the King and royal family, who remain the source of power. For the moment at least, they favor political reform. The question is how they will react to increasing pressure for change, as and when modernizers within and outside the government wish to move farther and faster than the monarchy deems prudent. We believe there is at least an even chance that the monarchy will stay sufficiently abreast of the times to avoid violent upheaval.
- C.
- The Afghans will continue eager to take assistance from both Bloc and West, but will make every effort to see that neither acquires inordinate influence. They have done this successfully for ten years [Page 1047] and should be able to continue, despite the fact that virtually all military assistance has come from the Bloc. Under the new government, tolerable relations with Pakistan have been restored, and both sides will try to keep tensions under control, though flareups are always possible and can, as recent experience shows, have damaging consequences for Afghanistan.
- D.
- If further large-scale foreign aid is forthcoming, as seems likely, Afghanistan should make increasing economic progress, on the base of a substantial infrastructure created over the past decade. But it is still a very underdeveloped country and will long be hampered by lack of trained people and shortage of domestic revenue. The USSR, which has in recent years become Afghanistan’s chief trading partner and its major source of aid, will continue in these roles, but this will probably not be translated into decisive political influence.
[Here follows the 9-page Discussion portion of the NIE.]
- Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Job 79–R01012A, ODDI Registry of NIE and SNIE Files. Secret; Controlled Dissem. According to a note on the cover sheet, the estimate was submitted by the Director of Central Intelligence and concurred in by the U.S. Intelligence Board on January 22. A table of contents and map are not printed.↩