Enclosed is a memorandum surveying the background and implications of
developments in the Rann of Kutch. The highlights are:
Enclosure3
RANN OF KUTCH DISPUTE
Background
The area in dispute, extending out from the old fort of Kanjarkot,
lies on the northern edge of the Rann of Kutch, a desolate area in
Western India on the Arabian Sea. It is alternately salt flats and
tidal basin. (The inundation lasts from June to November.) The area
was admitted by both sides to be in dispute at the time of the
Indo-Pakistani border negotiations of 1960. It was agreed at that
time that further discussions would be held to explore the validity
of the conflicting claims, but so far as we know these have not
taken place.
The current difficulties apparently began in January 1965, when the
Indians became aware that Pakistani border police were patrolling
below the Indian claim line. India lodged a protest and increased
its own patrolling activity. In mid-February, Pakistani forces dug
themselves in around Kanjarkot, which may have been previously
unoccupied, although Ayub claims that Pakistan had “long” occupied
it. Both sides have since built up the forces available to them in
the area, manned strong points, and shifted defense responsibility
from border units to the army.
During April, a series of incidents has occurred with both sides
blaming the other. The Pakistanis, enjoying a militarily superior
position, have moved forcefully against Indian outposts near the
border fort of Kanjarkot and most recently staged a “preemptive”
attack at Biar Bet, deeper within the disputed area. The Indians
have been mainly on the defensive but, according to Pakistan, have
established outposts within undisputed Pakistani territory.
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Both sides allege that the other has employed armor. The Indians have
denied the charge and we have no evidence to support it. Although
firm proof is lacking, there are reports supporting the Indian claim
that Pakistan has moved armor to the Kutch area and that it may be
engaged in action. The unit concerned, according to Embassy Karachi,
is MAP-equipped. Casualties have
been reported by both sides, shooting continues between patrols and
strong points, and public opinion—especially in India—has been
aroused sharply.
Pakistani patrolling south of Kanjarkot may have been going on for
quite some time without the Indians knowing it. There is little
doubt, however, that Pakistani occupation of Kanjarkot would have
upset a long-standing status quo. The Indian response of occupying
other posts near the frontier and, reportedly, building an airstrip
nearby brought the latent crisis to a head.
It will probably not be possible to determine who began firing, and
since the area involved is legitimately in dispute between Pakistan
and India, it is difficult to ascertain that either side committed
aggression against the territory of the other. (All action thus far
has, however, been much closer to the Indian claim line than to that
of Pakistan.)
Both sides have engaged in sparring over negotiations to ameliorate
the situation. The Indians accepted a Pakistani ceasefire offer on
April 15, but it has never been implemented. The Pakistanis demand a
demilitarization of the entire disputed area as a precondition to
talks, and the Indians would require a restoration of the status quo
ante, including Pakistani withdrawal from Kanjarkot. Pakistan claims
that Kanjarkot is not within the disputed area and India would be
understandably loath to evacuate all the way down to the 24th
parallel, so the prospects for a ceasefire and negotiations are
dim.
Political Implications
- a)
-
India: In an atmosphere colored by
India’s military humiliation by the Chinese in 1962, strong
public resentment over Pakistan’s developing relationship
with Peiping and the hurt feelings over the postponement of
Shastri’s visit,
the already beleaguered GOI
cannot afford domestically to be gotten the better of by
Pakistan in a military confrontation. The Indian Foreign
Secretary has told our DCM
that “the country is in no mood to take any more pushing in
the Rann of Kutch and the GOI may be constrained to retaliate elsewhere,
where conditions are more favorable to Indian forces”. The
GOI’s domestic political
discomfort is increased by aspects of the Kutch dispute
which are analogous to the pre-1962 situation in Ladakh—e.g.
the belated discovery by Indian patrols of foreign military
posts in a neglected area of Indian-claimed territory.
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Even before the activization of the Kutch dispute, the
moderate Shastri
government proved to be most vulnerable politically to
charges of weakness and indecision. Pakistan’s apparent
utilization of U.S.-supplied MAP equipment in the dispute further
complicates the situation domestically for the GOI by providing additional
grounds for criticism to extremists of both the left and
right who can exploit traditional Indian resentments over
U.S.-Pakistan security agreements of the 1950’s and India’s
acceptance in 1962 of more rigid constraints on the use of
U.S. military equipment.
- b)
-
Pakistan: The Kutch dispute,
occurring in an area of Pak
military superiority, provides the GOP with several opportunities. Diplomatically,
it provides Pakistan an opportunity to damage Indo-U.S.
relations, through the use of MAP equipment in a situation where there is
some ambiguity over the justification of its use.
Additionally, the Kutch dispute provides Pakistan, in the
weeks just before Bandung II, with an opportunity to brand
India as an aggressor in Afro-Asian eyes. This objective
will be further advanced if Pak actions in Kutch cause India to retaliate
elsewhere, especially if India should move into an area
generally recognized as Pak
territory. Domestically, the Kutch confrontation enables the
GOP to score over India,
despite India’s overall military superiority, particularly
in Kashmir and along the East Pak border.
Finally, Pakistan undoubtedly calculates that India’s
response to the Kutch situation will lend a plausibility to
the basic Pak contention
that India would use its military strength enhanced by our
military assistance to intimidate Pakistan and stick to an
intransigent policy on Kashmir, rather than in combatting
Communist China.
- c)
-
United States: The fighting in Kutch,
particularly Pakistan’s probable use of MAP equipment, has propelled us
once more into the center of a subcontinental dispute at a
moment when our leverage in both countries is at a low
point. Our relations with India, already exacerbated by the
postponement of Shastri’s visit, will be further strained by
public charges of Pakistan’s use of MAP equipment. Moreover, our problems with the
GOI will be complicated
by the fact that we have imposed more stringent conditions
on Indian use of MAP
equipment (i.e. only against Communist China) than the
conditions imposed on Pakistan. This discrepancy may assume
exaggerated significance in view of the fact that the
Soviets have imposed no conditions whatsoever on use of the
military assistance they have supplied India. This
complicating aspect of the situation may be highlighted by
Shastri’s imminent departure for Moscow in an atmosphere of
resentment over the postponement of his visit to the United
States.
In recent years, India’s preoccupation with the China threat
has led the GOI to rely
heavily on our ability to restrain Pakistan whenever
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Indo-Pak tensions have threatened to
get out of hand. In the present situations, the Indians have
indicated they would like help in promoting a ceasefire.