566. Intelligence Memorandum Prepared in the Central Intelligence Agency1
RHODESIA: A THIRD ROUND OF SANCTIONS2
Summary
The comprehensive sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council on 29 May 1968 against Rhodesia are unlikely to have much more effect in forcing Salisbury to relinquish its independence than have previous limited sanction efforts. So long as South Africa and Portugal refuse to comply with the Security Council’s demand, Rhodesia will almost certainly be able to sell sufficient exports and obtain necessary imports to maintain its economy. Most of Rhodesia’s foreign trade has been reoriented to adjust to previous sanctions and already either is with South Africa and Portugal or is carried out through disguised trade arrangements. Moreover, the country is more self-sufficient now than at the time of its Unilateral Declaration of Independence in late 1965 and is, therefore, better able to cope with the increased sanctions.
Zambia and Congo (Kinshasa) will not be able to apply trade sanctions fully against Rhodesia without bringing serious economic damage to themselves. Without Rhodesian coal, Zambian and Congo copper production would have to be cut back drastically. Moreover, Rhodesia can retaliate against sanctions by refusing to supply Zambia with electric power, which is essential to the copper industry, or by refusing to carry most of the country’s imports and exports, on which the Zambian economy is dependent. Although the UN resolution requests member states to assist Zambia, there is little that can be done over the next few years to replace the essential goods and services supplied by neighboring Rhodesia.
[Here follows the body of the paper.]
- Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Country File, Rhodesia, Vol. II, Memos and Miscellaneous, 2/66–12/68. Secret; No Foreign Dissem.↩
- Note: This memorandum was produced solely by CIA. It was prepared by the Office of Economic Research and was coordinated with the Office of Current Intelligence. [Footnote in the source text.]↩