Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964–1968, Volume XXIV, Africa

360. National Intelligence Estimate¹

NIE 64.2–65

Washington, August 26, 1965.

PROSPECTS FOR NIGERIA

The Problem

To estimate probable developments in Nigeria over the next two to three years.

Conclusions

A. The salient question for Nigeria is whether the federal structure can survive in the face of the many internal strains and tensions. The facts of geography and population assure that under the constitution, the federal government will continue to be dominated by the party representing the tradition-bound Moslems of the North, who are generally contemptuous of the South and unsympathetic to its problems. The southern regions, which are deeply divided along tribal, regional, and party lines, resent northern domination. Some southern leaders cooperate with the North in federal affairs realizing that only thus can they and their interest reap the benefits of participation in government. (Paras. 1–7)

B. The economy is based upon agriculture, the beginnings of a modest industrial sector, and a promising petroleum industry. Economic development is hampered by regional and tribal parochialism, the dearth of essential skills, and a high incidence of corruption. There is considerable unemployment and underemployment. At mid-course in a six-year development plan, domestic financial resources are inadequate, although foreign capital is flowing in, particularly in the petroleum industry. Some modest overall economic growth is expected, but the government will be beset by rising pressures from discontented jobless and urban workers. (Paras. 8–16)

C. We do not foresee any important lessening of the internal tensions and resentments which threaten the unity of the federation. If northerners and southerners continue to think and act in terms of narrow regional interests, there will be serious danger of a critical North-South confrontation. We estimate that the continuation of the federation and the growth of an integrated nation cannot be taken as assured. Nevertheless, we believe that the chances are considerably better than even that Nigeria will be able to avoid a breakup during the next two or three years, through the disappearance of Prime Minister Balewa from the scene would reduce these odds significantly. Over the longer run, we expect a rise of discontent and radical leaders in the South who will challenge and probably replace present leaders and place national unity in jeopardy. The security forces appear capable of dealing with most disorders, but it is doubtful if they could cope with a national crisis which involved interregional or federal versus regional issues.² (Paras. 17–25)

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1. Source: Central Intelligence Agency: Job 79–R01012A, ODDI Registry of NIE and SNIE Files. Secret; Controlled Dissem. According to a note on the cover sheet, the estimate was submitted by the Director of Central Intelligence and concurred in by the U.S. Intelligence Board on August 26.
2. The Director of Intelligence and Research, Department of State, agrees that Nigeria is not likely to break up during the next 2 to 3 years. He believes, however, that the threat to continuation of the federation is not so serious as the estimate suggests. He considers that the estimate does not give due weight to the accommodation to northern predominance effected by southern leaders in the courses of major trials of strength over the past 3 years and that consequently it misinterprets present north-south relations and undervalues the southern commitment to maintenance of the federation. While agreeing that social and economic grievances are becoming more serious, he considers that the growth of southern opposition to northern leadership will be slowed and limited by southern disunity, division within the labor movement, and the weakness of radical organizations. On the basis of these considerations, he also disagrees with a number of related points of detail and presentation in the Estimate. [Footnote in the source text.]