Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964–1968, Volume XXIV, Africa

350. Special National Intelligence Estimate¹

SNIE 76.1–68

Washington, April 11, 1968.

THE OUTLOOK FOR INTERNAL SECURITY IN ETHIOPIA

Conclusions

A. We estimate that, despite recent improvements in security conditions in Ethiopia, the insurgency in Eriteria will persist and that security problems will continue in other outlying trouble spots. As long as Haile Selassie remains in power, his government will probably be able to keep these problems from getting out of hand. Little will be done, however, to alleviate the underlying causes of the dissidence, because of the rigidity of Haile Selassie’s policies and of the Imperial political system.

B. The passing of Haile Selassie, now 75 years old, will usher in a period of great uncertainty in Addis Ababa, which could be prolonged and violent. In these circumstances, government forces would probably be unable to maintain control throughout the countryside, at least for a time.

C. A reduction in US deliveries of military assistance to Ethiopia, at a time when the Emperor is seeking an increase, would be likely to strain relations. Though the Kagnew communications facility in Eritrea would probably become a specific issue in Ethiopian bargaining for increased aid, we believe that the Emperor would not go far in threatening continued US use of the facility. After he leaves the scene, Kagnew will probably become increasingly a focus of political attention in Ethiopia. The cost of US rights there will probably increase substantially, and there might be a demand to renegotiate the agreement under which it operates.

D. The Eritrean insurgents have not attacked US facilities in Kagnew, though over time pressures for such attacks from within the ranks of the partisans and from radical foreign sponsors are likely to increase. If Eritrea were to break away from Ethiopia, the US might not be cast out of Kagnew automatically. The reaction of Eritrean leaders would depend in part on their susceptibility to radical foreign influences and the availability of alternative sources of foreign aid.

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1. Source: Central Intelligence Agency: Job 79–R01012A, ODDI Registry of NIE and SNIE Files. Secret; Controlled Dissem. According to a note on the cover sheet, the estimate was submitted by Director of Central Intelligence Richard M. Helms, and concurred in by the U.S. Intelligence Board on April 11.