Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964–1968, Volume XXIV, Africa

232. Paper Prepared in the Department of State¹

Washington, March 13, 1968.

FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES IN 1968: AFRICA

Summary

1. The paper focuses on major foreign policy issues which may come before the NSC or the President during 1968.

2. The U.S. objectives toward which policy should he directed are defined as: (a) safeguarding of U.S. strategic interests; adoption by African governments of favorable attitudes; fostering of U.S. trade and investments; (b) realization of the principle of self determination in southern Africa; (c) achievement of an environment which will permit the African nations to develop their national interests without external interference.

3. In a continental sense, the general problems anticipated during the year will be the continuing prevalence of instability and those arising out of the need for continued economic development. With regard to the latter, our capacity for action will be limited by the reduction in the resources that can be employed to meet Africa’s increasing economic needs and by Congressional restrictions placed on the use of those resources (e.g., Conte-Long amendments). Presidential action may be required when inability to obtain adequate U.S. assistance influences African countries to turn away from the West.

4. In North Africa the situation will be dominated by the cumulative effects of Soviet arms and influence in Algeria and the UAR, and increasing Soviet activity in the Mediterranean. Four issues may arise: (a) whether Soviet arms shipments to Algeria will escalate the arms race in the Maghreb; (b) the problem of protecting the U.S. national interests in the area in the face of legislative restrictions; (c) whether we can maintain our use of Wheelus Air Base; (d) a possible request from President Bourguiba of Tunisia for security assurances when he visits the United States in May.

5. The Horn of Africa is also under pressure from Soviet military activities in the Sudan and less so than formerly in Somalia, which is pursuing a policy of detente with Ethiopia and Kenya. Three issues may arise: (a) whether in the uncertain security situation in Ethiopia we should maintain our communications facilities at Kagnew or turn to alternatives; (b) what our response should be to continuing requests by Ethiopia for more arms, and (c) whether we should consider using our support of Ethiopia, Somalia or Kenya to encourage continued detente.

6. In East Africa the principal problems will be maintaining the momentum of progress in regional cooperation and in averting excessive pressures within Tanzania, either from Chinese or other Communist influence. Three issues may arise: (a) will the East African economic community be but a paper organization without considerable outside encouragement and assistance; (b) whether the purchase by an individual East African country (e.g. Uganda) of sophisticated weapons will restrict our ability to help the region as a whole; and (c) possible nationalization or similar actions by governments of the region (especially Zanzibar).

7. West Africa is subject to multiple internal pressures: malaise between France and francophone countries; repercussions of unrest, the civil war in Nigeria, a possible crisis in the Congo (K), the need for continuing political and economic progress in Ghana. Four issues may arise: (a) should the U.S. remain neutral in the Nigerian conflict? If the disputants succeed in reaching even a temporary accommodation, how we respond effectively to the need for assistance; (b) should we shift the emphasis of our aid in Congo (K) from budget support to development; how would we respond to new needs for C–130 aircraft?; (c) how to strike a balance between encouragement of continued French aid to francophone Africa and reduction of French-inspired restrictions; (d) whether we can develop sufficient consortium assistance to Ghana.

8. In southern Africa the complex of issues will remain. The situation in Rhodesia will present us with serious problems. Portugal will face continuing difficulties in Angola and Mozambique and may take dangerous initiatives with respect to Black Africa. South African issues nay reach a flash point in the United Nations over South West Africa; renewed pressures may be felt on our present policy on arms, naval visits and strategic facilities. Zambia will face intensive pressures for political action and economic development. In all of these we face the problem of establishing our credibility with respect to the application of our principles in southern Africa. Four issues may arise: (a) if Rhodesia settles with the United Kingdom, what should our economic and political policies be? If Rhodesia withstands present economic pressures what will be our stand on moves to widen sanctions or with regard to the use of force?; (b) what decisions we should take if Portugal strikes at Black Africa or puts pressure on us re NATO or the Azores?; (c) what our responses should be to the variety of South African issues; and (d) whether we can channel Western resources to meet Zambia’s economic and security needs.

[Here follows the body of the paper.]

1. Source: Department of State, Central Files, POL 1 AFR–US. Secret. Drafted by Hadsel in AF/AFI. A March 16 covering memorandum from Read to Rostow reads: “The enclosed paper on African foreign policy issues which may arise during 1968 is submitted as a possible topic for a future NSC meeting. The paper was prepared by the Bureau of African Affairs and has been cleared by the Under Secretary.”