187. Editorial Note

On December 1, 1966, the intelligence community issued National Intelligence Estimate 11–12–66, “The Outlook for Sino-Soviet Relations.” The estimate concluded that “Sino-Soviet relations will continue to deteriorate so long as the Mao Tse-tung-Lin Piao leadership group retains authority.” In the longer term, “prospects for major changes leading either to a further deterioration or an easing of the dispute appear to rest mainly on what happens in China after Mao.” Should there be a Sino-Soviet rapprochement in either the short or longer term, it was “likely to have definite limits. We expect little or no positive cooperation at the party level and a continuing general atmosphere of barely suppressed suspicion and mistrust. Moreover, the Sino-Soviet relationship would remain highly vulnerable to clashes of national interests over a broad range of issues.” For text of the estimate, see Foreign Relations, 1964–1968, volume XXX, Document 223.