Office of the Historian

201. Special National Intelligence Estimate1

SNIE 13–66
Washington, August 4, 1966.

CURRENT CHINESE COMMUNIST INTENTIONS IN THE VIETNAM SITUATION

Conclusion

The Chinese Communists have responded to recent US air action against North Vietnamese POL facilities and to Ho Chi Minhʼs July 17 appeal for more aid2 with massive propaganda demonstrations all over China. These occasions were used to renew pledges of complete support for Hanoi and to reiterate the Chinese view that the war must be continued to final victory. At the same time, the Chinese seem likely to provide more manpower for logistical and engineering functions in North Vietnam, and, for the first time, they may move some infantry troops into North Vietnam as a precautionary step against the contingency of invasion.

We do not conclude, however, that the Chinese have changed their basic policy because of the recent air strikes. We have estimated that Peking would almost certainly intervene if North Vietnam were invaded or if the collapse of the Communist regime seemed likely. But we continue to believe that, at present levels of US action against NVN, China will not commit its ground forces to the war, nor its air force to deliberate and sustained action against US forces.

[Here follows the body of the 7-page estimate.]

  1. Source: Central Intelligence Agency, O/DDI Registry, Job 79–R01012A. Secret; Controlled Dissem. The Central Intelligence Agency and the intelligence organizations of NSA and the Departments of State and Defense participated in the preparation of the estimate. The estimate was submitted by the Director of Central Intelligence and concurred in by all the members of the U.S. Intelligence Board except for the Assistant General Manager of the Atomic Energy Commission and the Assistant Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, who abstained on grounds that the subject was outside their jurisdiction.

    Rostow forwarded the estimate to President Johnson on August 5, noting in his covering memorandum that it had been produced “at our request.” (Johnson Library, National Security File, Memos to the President—Walt W. Rostow, vol. 10)

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  2. See footnote 3, Document 180.↩