48. Memorandum From the Deputy Director of the Bureau of Intelligence and Research (Denney) to the Secretary of State1
SUBJECT
- Hanoi Foresees Victory in South Vietnam—But Only After Long Guerrilla War
In view of increasing speculation concerning the designs of North Vietnam in the South, we have analyzed a spate of recent statements from Hanoi which provide an unusually revealing picture of Hanoi’s calculations.
Abstract
A series of authoritative North Vietnamese articles, released on February 10 and 11, reaffirm Hanoi’s belief that protracted political and military struggle without open North Vietnamese intervention will be ultimately successful against a militarily superior army. Nevertheless, Hanoi again evinces concern about how Viet Cong morale will hold up in the long run and even reveals the existence of considerable Northern disenchantment about the war in the South. The fullest exposition of these views is an article in the January issue of the elite journal Hoc Tap, by Lt. General Nguyen Van Vinh who, as head of the “reunification” committees of both the party’s central committee and the National Assembly, probably has a major role in the formulation of Viet Cong policy.
Vinh argues at length against the contention that the conflict carries serious risk of escalation, a view apparently advanced by Moscow and perhaps echoed by some North Vietnamese leaders. In so doing, he warns the United States for the first time that an attack on [Page 83] North Vietnam would involve conflict with Communist China, but he is notably less explicit about the Soviet response. Hanoi appears genuinely concerned that the United States may be considering action against the North. This in part may explain not only these articles but also the recent flurry of related political and even military activity.
General Vinh predicts that the United States will remain involved in South Vietnam “for some years” until forced to withdraw in the face of heavier and heavier defeats. He is less precise about the consequences should the United States vastly increase its role, hinting this might necessitate increased North Vietnamese participation (as in Laos). The article implicitly rules out an international political settlement as a feasible course of action, at least under prevailing conditions. Another statement released the same day categorically rejects French President de Gaulle’s suggestion (although it was attributed to President Johnson) that North Vietnam might be neutralized.
[Here follows the text of the 6-page paper.]
- Source: Department of State, S/P Files: Lot 71 D 273, Vietnam. Secret.↩