315. Telegram From the Embassy in Korea to the Department of State0
515. 1. Election returns have astonished all observers.1 While it is true opposition gained on Pak in last week, extent of vote for Yun, especially in armed forces, generally remarkable. Equally remarkable, and to surprise everyone (including Embassy), was junta’s apparent willingness to take chance of free balloting. That it may have been overconfident is true, but nevertheless by conscious decision govt did its best insure an orderly election day and efficient conduct of balloting.
2. We do not intend in this message to analyze complete campaign and probable future consequences. It is a little too soon for that, and we want to watch a few days to see popular and organized political reaction.2 At this point, however, it is clear that Pak did not achieve decisive victory which he expected. Yun’s hard-hitting personal campaign attacks took their toll, but dissatisfaction with military govt on economic and political grounds and with its style of governing, and was more fundamental. Much of Yun’s vote was not so much pro-Yun as anti-military govt. The opposition vote was registered in face of a govt machine which had money and organization. Pak won a personal victory but his opponents have a moral victory and with it perhaps a new sense of confidence which they may use to their advantage in the future.
3. Our preliminary evaluation of the vote count runs like this. Pak’s ability to hold Yun to a surprise draw in Pusan, rack up a big majority in his home Kyongsang provinces and overturn Yun’s hopes in normally opposition Cholla provinces carried the day. A decisive factor in holding down Yun’s vote was the 800,000 odd votes picked up by the three minor candidates. Undoubtedly a majority of these would otherwise have gone to Yun and would have made the difference between defeat and victory.
4. Another factor significance of which we not able yet judge is the large number of invalid votes and their locale. Vote tallies as announced so far do not provide the necessary statistics evaluate this element. What data we have show large numbers of invalid votes (perhaps as many as one million) particularly in areas where Yun ran strong. These may be votes cast for Song Yo-chan in addition to ballot otherwise spoiled but [Page 666] that is only speculation. We will have to await opposition and press initiatives to probe this. If spoilage is overwhelmingly and disproportionately large in Yun strongholds, the opposition will have something critical to say.
5. So far opposition comment on Pak’s vote in Pusan is surprise [garble]with snide reference to power failure when vote counting [garble]. Pak’s vote in the Chollas is being attributed to strong campaigning by the DRP with plenty of money and liberal use of govt favors in an area where the govt knew Pak might have trouble.
6. More than anything the military vote will be debated back and forth. It was not rigged, that is sure. That it favored Yun is also sure. Inflationary pressure and consequent discontent help to explain it.
7. We do not know how either junta or the opposition will react in the immediate future. Pak’s first reaction has been statesmanlike and moderate. Some of his associates have not been as forthright. That Pak did not win either outright majority or sizeable margin over his nearest opponent may have restraining effect on junta’s actions. An important test in next few days will be how govt behaves toward election and “violators.”
Pak reaffirmed in post-election statement he intends no retaliation.
8. Opposition has said very little so far about election, preliminary statements moderate. Too early to say if this will last.
9. Both we and ROK face difficult few days followed by period uncertainty until Assembly elections over. However, country appears have taken a major step, in which it might easily have stumbled, towards transfer to civil govt. We will do an assessment of the outlook as soon as we can draw a fine bead.
- Source: Department of State, Central Files,POL 14 S KOR. Confidential; Immediate. Repeated to CINCPAC for POLAD and Tokyo.↩
- The final total vote count was: Pak Chung-hui, 4,702,640; Yun Po-sun, 4,546,614; three other minor candidates, a total of 1,031,944. There were 954,977 invalid ballots and 1,948,840 abstentions. (Telegram 525 from Seoul, October 18; ibid.)↩
- The Embassy sent a long appraisal of the elections in airgram 346 from Seoul, October 29. (Ibid.)↩