Foreign Relations of the United States, 1961–1963, Volume XIX, South Asia

109. National Intelligence Estimate⁰

NIE 37-62

Washington, March 7, 1962.

AFGHANISTAN’S INTERNATIONAL POSITION¹

The Problem

To estimate probable developments in Afghanistan’s international position during the next few years.

Conclusions

1. The relative weight of Soviet influence in Afghanistan has grown in recent years and Afghanistan has been increasingly isolated from the West. These developments have been greatly facilitated by the Pushtunistan dispute with Pakistan, in which the USSR has emerged as Afghanistan’s principal source of diplomatic support. The Bloc has also been the sole supplier of large quantities of arms and a, heavy investor in Afghan economic development. Although there is little reason to believe that the USSR will seek to cash in on its investment at an early date, it is now virtually assured of having the dominant foreign influence on Afghanistan’s future. (Paras. 15-17, 21-24)

2. At the same time, Afghanistan will remain deeply concerned with the preservation of its independence and will continue to exercise its considerable skill in hedging Soviet influence. While probably already convinced that the US role will be a secondary one, Kabul will continue eager for US aid and maintenance of the US presence. In general, we are likely to have with us for a considerable future time an Afghanistan very like that we have known for the past few years. (Paras. 21, 24)

[Here follows a 5-page discussion section and a 2-page annex entitled “Pushtunistan.”]

0. Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Job 79 R 01012A, ODDI Registry of NIE and SNIE Files, Box 212. Secret. According to a note on the cover sheet: “The following organizations participated in the preparation of this estimate: The Central Intelligence Agency, and the intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, Defense, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, and the Joint Staff.” All members of the U.S. Intelligence Board concurred in this estimate on March 7, except the Atomic Energy Commission representative and the Assistant Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, who abstained on the grounds that the subject was outside their jurisdiction.
1. We believe that the fairly detailed analysis and estimate of the internal political situation in Afghanistan which is contained in Section I of NIE 53-59, “The Outlook for Afghanistan,” dated 22 September 1959, remains valid and that there is little of importance that could be added to it at the present time. [Footnote in the source text NIE 53-59 is printed in Foreign Relations, 1958–1960, vol. XV, pp. 287–292.]