Foreign Relations of the United States, 1961–1963, Volume XI, Cuban Missile Crisis and Aftermath

370. Memorandum From the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (Carroll) to Secretary of Defense McNamara⁰

Washington, October 8, 1963.

SUBJECT

• (U) Appraisal of Bloc and Free-World Shipping to Cuba, Soviet Forces Remaining in Cuba, and the State of Cuban Economy as Compared to a Year Ago

1. Forwarded for your information are copies of three appraisals prepared in response to an oral request from the Military Aide to the President.¹

2. The comparative assessment of Soviet Bloc and Free-World shipping points out that total shipping averaged 48.1 dry cargo and 19.2 tanker arrivals per month during the past year, as compared with an average of 90.6 dry cargo and 25.5 tanker arrivals during the first nine months of 1962. No significant decline in Soviet Bloc shipping is noted, attributable to the fact that in the preceding period Bloc ships were carrying large quantities of military materiel while during this year they have carried primarily foodstuff and industrial equipment in order to make up for the significant drop in Free-World shipping.

3. The assessment of the status of Soviet military personnel in Cuba, prepared in collaboration with CIA, concludes that Soviet military personnel withdrawals are continuing and that total Soviet military strength in Cuba is now estimated to be between 5,000 and 8,000—representing a reduction to date of at least two-thirds of the number originally estimated to be on the island during the crisis. Most of those remaining are advisors and technicians engaged in training Cuban personnel in the operation of Soviet weapons, in supervising the use and maintenance of Soviet equipment turned over to the Cubans, and in operating the Soviet-controlled air defense system. No organized Soviet ground combat units remain in Cuba.

4. The appraisal of the economic situation cites a continuing decline in Cuban production—on the order of 5 to 7 per cent, with 20 per cent decline in sugar harvest (the main stay of Cuba’s economy) and with living conditions continuing to deteriorate. So far, however, the continued economic decline has not adversely affected the Cuban military establishment.

Joseph F. Carroll
Lieutenant General, USAF

0. Source: Washington National Records Center, RG 330, OASD (C) A Files:FRC 71 A 2896, Cuba 381, May through Dec. 1963. Secret.
1. According to an attached covering sheet sent to Clifton, the oral request was made on October 4. The three attached appraisals were a review of shipping to Cuba over the past year, an estimate of Soviet personnel remaining in Cuba, and an estimate of economic conditions in Cuba as compared to last year. The appraisals are ibid.