285. Editorial Note
On February 21, 1963, the U.S. Intelligence Board considered and approved a report of the Committee on Overhead Reconnaissance recommending that high-level photography of activities related to impending movement of Soviet personnel and equipment in Cuba be supplemented by low-level photography and night photography. Low-level photography would target Soviet ships in Cuban ports and unidentified installations. (Memorandum to the U.S. Intelligence Board from James S. Lay, February 21; Washington National Records Center, RG 330, OASD (C) A Files:FRC 71 A 2896, Cuba 381, Feb. thru April, 1963) For text of the memorandum and the attached report, see the Supplement.
[Page 706]Also on February 21 the Central Intelligence Agency submitted to the U.S. Intelligence Board a special estimate, SNIE 85-2-63, “Reactions to U.S. Low-Level Overflights of Cuba.” The estimate concluded that Soviet and Cuban forces would refrain from hostile action against three or four low-level missions per week for 2 weeks. Should the flights continue without interruption or increase, Castro would press the Soviet Union for military counteraction. The Soviet Union would temporize, seeking a political or propaganda campaign against the flights. The Soviet Union might pass private warnings to the United States and initiate diplomatic negotiations to end them. Faced with continued flights and Soviet refusal to act, the estimate suggested that Castro would probably take unilateral action against low-level reconnaissance planes. The Special Estimate did not predict at what point Castro would attempt to act. (Central Intelligence Agency Files, Job 79-R01012A, ODDI Registry) For text of SNIE 85-2-63, see the Supplement.