119. Editorial Note
On September 21, 1961, the intelligence community issued National Intelligence Estimate 11-8/1-61, “Strength and Deployment of Soviet Long Range Ballistic Missile Forces.” NIE 11-8/1-61 revised and updated NIE 11-8-61, “Soviet Capabilities for Long Range Attack,” issued June 7, 1961, particularly Annex C on “Soviet Long Range Ballistic Missile Forces.” For text of Annex C, see Foreign Relations, 1961–1963, volume VIII, pages 83–102.
NIE 11-8/1-61 concluded that “new information, providing a much firmer base for estimates on Soviet long range ballistic missiles, has caused a sharp downward revision in our estimate of present Soviet ICBM strength but strongly supports our estimate of medium range missile strength. We now estimate that the present Soviet ICBM strength is in the range of 10-25 launchers from which missiles can be fired against the US, and that this force level will not increase markedly during the months immediately ahead. We also estimate that the USSR now has about 250-300 operational launchers equipped with 700 and 1,100 n.m. [Page 297] ballistic missiles. The bulk of these MRBM launchers are in the western USSR, within range ofNATO targets in Europe.” The estimate concluded further that “Soviet professions of greatly enhanced striking power thus derive primarily from a massive capability to attack European and other peripheral targets. Although Soviet propaganda has assiduously cultivated an image of great ICBM strength, the bulk of the USSRʼs present capability to attack the US is in bombers and submarine-launched missiles rather than in a large ICBM force. While the presentICBM force poses a grave threat to a number of US urban areas, it represents only a limited threat to US-based nuclear striking forces.”
The estimate noted, however, that the USSR was pressing development of a second generation ICBM system that would probably be ready for operational use sometime in the latter half of 1962. “After this point, we anticipate that the number of operational launchers will begin to increase significantly,” with the force level in mid-1963 approximating 75-125 operational ICBM launchers. For text, see ibid., pages 131–138.