Foreign Relations of the United States, 1955–1957, Central and Southeastern Europe, Volume XXVI

48. National Intelligence Estimate¹

NIE 23–56

Washington, April 17, 1956.

POLITICAL OUTLOOK IN WEST GERMANY²

The Problem

To estimate West German domestic political developments, and attitudes and policies in foreign affairs over the next several years.

Conclusions

1. West Germany’s remarkable recovery has promoted the stability of moderate political forces and a strongly pro-Western orientation. The prospects are favorable for continued West German economic expansion, though at a declining rate. However, the West German economy remains particularly vulnerable to a deterioration of world trading conditions. A prolonged and widespread economic depression could seriously disrupt West Germany’s internal politics and foreign policies. However, West Germans are becoming more self-assertive on national issues. There is a growing trend toward the belief that West German interests are no longer entirely identical with those of the Western powers, and that Bonn must develop a more independent foreign policy and greater initiative on reunification. Thus, the moderate political coalition led by Chancellor Adenauer is coming under increasing challenge from those who feel that his foreign policy is too rigidly tied to Western policies and who resent his largely autocratic control. The Chancellor faces serious opposition for the first time from the right, as well as continuing opposition from the left. (Paras. 16, 21–22, 26, 29–32)

2. It is almost certain, however, that the present government will continue until the 1957 federal elections. Even Adenauer’s death or retirement before the elections almost certainly would not jeopardize West Germany’s basic pro-Western orientation and internal stability. (Paras. 33–34)

3. Rearmament is no longer challenged in principle by West German political leaders. However, Finance Minister Schaeffer’s determination not to raise budgetary outlays to the level required by the scheduled three to four year build-up, continuing controversy over the character of the armed forces, and possible failure to conscript until after the 1957 elections will further delay implementation of planned rearmament. (Paras. 49–50)

4. Whether or not Adenauer leads the Christian Democratic Party in the 1957 elections it will probably remain the strongest single party in West Germany, although it is unlikely to retain a majority in the Bundestag. If the present coalition group receives a parliamentary majority, the coalition will almost certainly be continued. It seems more likely that the coalition parties will fall short of a majority, particularly if they are deprived of Adenauer’s personal leadership. In this event, a CDU–SPD, a CDU–FDP, or an SPD–FDP coalition, or a CDU minority government, are all possibilities. Although it is too early to predict what government would take office, increased adjustment and compromise would be required if strong and stable government were to continue. (Paras. 45–47)

5. It is highly unlikely that West Germany will abandon its membership in NATO or its intimate association with the United States, so long as the present government is in power. Even if those who favor a more independent foreign policy should come to power in Bonn, the strong economic and cultural ties with the West and, above all, the intense fear and distrust of the USSR would deter them from abandoning Bonn’s commitments to the West, except as part of an otherwise satisfactory reunification arrangement. (Para. 52)

6. Bonn’s present policy of firm association with the North Atlantic Community will not prevent it from exploring reunification possibilities directly with the USSR, or even eventually with the East Germans. This tendency would increase if the West Germans became convinced that Western support on reunification were faltering. The West German government, whatever its political complexion, will probably find it politically necessary to engage in such discussions during the next few years. We believe it unlikely, however, that they would do so without keeping their major Western allies informed. We believe that no West German government would accept reunification unless, at a minimum: (a) Soviet forces were withdrawn from East Germany; (b) Germany were permitted an adequate defense force; and (c) the government felt assured that the US would continue to support and protect a united Germany. If the foregoing conditions were met, we believe that any West German government would accept such conditions as: (a) the neutrality of a reunified Germany; (b) a substantial modification of Western proposals for the conduct of elections; and (c) preservation for a limited period of the structure of the East German state within the framework of an all-German government, provided the West Germans were assured of control. (Paras. 55–56)

7. The long-range outlook for West German political stability and association with the West includes both favorable and adverse factors, which make the long term future of moderate and pro-Western government uncertain. On balance, we believe that, at least for some years to come, the political forces which will control West Germany will remain basically moderate, and that, except in the event of an acceptable Soviet reunification offer, West Germany will adhere to the Western alliance. (Paras. 58–61)

Discussion

[Here follow Sections I, “Current Attitudes and Influences,” and II, “Economic Trends.”]

III. Political Trends

The Adenauer Government

31. Presiding over West Germany’s economic recovery and political alignment with the North Atlantic Community has been a center-right coalition led by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian affiliate, the Christian Social Union (CSU). Although the 1953 parliamentary elections gave the CDU–CSU a majority of one in the Bundestag, Chancellor Adenauer retained a coalition government which included the Free Democratic Party (FDP), the Germany Party (DP), and the refugee All-German Bloc Party (BHE). This coalition commanded a two-thirds majority (334 of 487 seats). However, this coalition developed strains as a result of Free Democratic and all-German Bloc attacks on the Chancellor’s “authoritarianism” and his rigid adherence to Western policies. Eighteen BHE deputies left the coalition in the summer of 1955, while seven other deputies, including two cabinet members, joined the CDU, and two others joined the FDP. The right wing of the FDP also became increasingly disaffected and in February 1956 its harassing actions culminated in breaking the CDU–FDP coalition in the important German state of North-Rhine-Westphalia and in the formation of a coalition with the SPD. The Chancellor expelled from the coalition those 34 FDP members of the Bundestag who supported the FDP action in North-Rhine-Westphalia. The 14 FDP voting deputies,³ including four cabinet members, who disassociated themselves from the attack on Adenauer and the action in Westphalia, continued as loyal supporters of the government and its policies.⁴ Although the CDU has had a net gain of eight seats, the coalition as a whole has lost 52 seats as a result of these developments.

32. At present, therefore, the Adenauer government for the first time faces serious opposition from the right as well as continuing opposition from the left. The Social Democrats on the left and the FDP on the right are in agreement on two things: (a) they believe Adenauer’s foreign policy is too rigidly tied to Western policy, and (b) they resent his personal domination of the government. As of the moment their collaboration has been limited to various State governments, but they may be able to overthrow CDU-led governments in enough States to deprive Adenauer of a majority in the Bundesrat at Bonn. In such an event Adenauer could be severely handicapped, and his legislation impeded.

33. Nevertheless, it is almost certain that a CDU-dominated coalition will endure until the next federal elections scheduled for 1957. Most of the 14 FDP Bundestag members loyal to Adenauer appear to be committed to the government’s domestic and foreign policies, and are unlikely to leave the coalition. Adenauer will almost certainly not approach the SPD concerning a CDU–SPD coalition between now and the elections. Differences between these two major West German parties over both domestic and foreign policy, and longstanding personal animosities will continue to bar such a development.

The Adenauer Succession

34. The Chancellor’s death or retirement before the 1957 elections almost certainly would not jeopardize West Germany’s pro-Western orientation and internal stability, although it would usher in a period of greater political fluidity. Although the CDU without Adenauer would be handicapped by the absence of the Chancellor’s great prestige and popularity, the cohesion which has been achieved among the party’s varied religious, economic, and social interests would probably not be greatly affected prior to the 1957 elections. Even if Adenauer left the scene it is improbable that either the CDU or the SPD would seriously entertain the idea of forming a CDU–SPD coalition prior to the federal elections.

35. Finance Minister Fritz Schaeffer and Foreign Minister Von Brentano would be the leading candidates to succeed Adenauer. While Schaeffer is a strong personality and occupies a strategic position in the Cabinet as well as in the CDU leadership, Von Brentano’s prestige and popularity have increased rapidly both among politicians and the public. Both Schaeffer and Von Brentano are staunch supporters of Adenauer’s adherence to the Western alliance, and would attempt to continue Adenauer’s policies.

Trends in Party Strength

36. The Christian Democrats. The CDU remains the largest of the West German parties. In the 1949 federal elections it received 31 percent of the vote; in the 1953 federal elections it reached a peak of 45 percent. In subsequent elections in the nine States of the Federal Republic, the CDU has averaged about 37 percent. Probably more than half of this decline in State elections was due to lower turnouts of voters who supported the CDU in the 1953 federal elections. Thus, in the State election of 1953–1955, the CDU preserved about half of its gains in the 1953 federal elections.

37. The personality and prestige of Chancellor Adenauer have been of great importance to the CDU in drawing popular support, and the party would be handicapped by his removal from the scene through death or incapacitation. However, the CDU possesses a number of personalities who could succeed to Adenauer’s position; while lacking the stature of the Chancellor, they would probably be able to maintain its position as the strongest political group for the next several years. There is presently no notable dissension along sectional, social-economic or religious lines, or because of foreign policy issues. Nevertheless, any party which depends so much on a strong and popular leader faces some dissension and loss of discipline when he passes from the scene. This dissension would be most likely in connection with coalition arrangements, but may also develop in connection with such issues as reunification or rearmament.

38. The Free Democrats. Predominantly Protestant, the FDP represents conservative business interests and as such constitutes a financially strong though numerically weak element in the political scene. The FDP suffered considerable electoral losses to the CDU in 1953 and has recouped only a portion of those losses since. Young elements of the party’s right wing have been the most restive under the Chancellor’s policies. They led the revolt against the Adenauer coalition, and have gained control of the party organization.

39. The presence of a new and more vigorous rightist opposition to the governing coalition introduces a significant and potentially dangerous element into German politics. The dominant faction seems to be increasingly prepared to utilize nationalist appeals. It seems convinced that the FDP could draw more electoral support as an opposition group and could assume a pivotal position between the CDU and the SPD. Its leaders are largely self-confident and successful young men, some of whom were Nazi functionaries, and most of whom feel that something more dynamic than the Adenauer program is required. They favor greater flexibility and maneuverability in Germany’s position. The sharp attacks on Adenauer, designed to convince the electorate that the FDP, more than the CDU, is genuinely interested in reunification, will continue at an increasing rate, at least until the 1957 federal elections. At the same time, the FDP will be amenable to almost any temporary political combination in order to embarrass Adenauer and hamper him in implementing his policies.

40. The Social Democrats. The SPD opposition on the left represents a stable and clear-cut factor in the political scene. The second largest party in West Germany, the SPD has made moderate gains in nine State elections since 1955. In these elections, the SPD averaged 34 percent of the vote as compared with 29 percent in the 1953 federal elections. At the moment, the SPD is devoting increased attention to domestic issues, and will probably continue to emphasize economic and social measures.

41. In their role as the major opposition and in their efforts to gain new adherents, the SPD has also sought to exploit foreign policy issues, especially Adenauer’s alleged failure to do as much as possible to achieve reunification. Although basically pro-Western and strongly anti-Communist in orientation, the SPD opposed West German NATO and WEU membership and rearmament plans on the grounds that these commitments worked against reunification. However, the SPD has accepted the parliamentary decisions on NATO membership and rearmament, and has thus far cooperated in the preparation of rearmament legislation. It will urge that continuous efforts be made to sound out any changes in the Soviet position on reunification and that West-East German interchange be expanded short of de jure recognition of the GDR regime. They will be in the vanguard of those who would be willing to drop West Germany’s formal military commitments to the West in exchange for reunification on otherwise acceptable terms (see paras. 55–56). The SPD will make reunification a major issue in the 1957 elections as in the past. Whether its position on foreign policy issues will significantly increase its vote is questionable; such issues, with their nationalist, neutralist overtones, are more likely to accrue ultimately to rightist benefit.

42. The Minor Parliamentary Parties. The BHE, representing refugees from Soviet-controlled territories, ranked fourth in the 1953 federal elections. The refugees have been largely absorbed into West German society and today have less cause to stand apart in German politics. The party split in 1955 over continued adherence to the coalition and the major faction is now in opposition. This latter group will probably attempt to continue an independent existence. It still commands about five percent of the electorate, but its strength will probably gradually decline. The German Party, the smallest coalition member, formerly aspired to become the nucleus of a right-wing movement but has failed in this effort. It might at some time merge with the CDU on the national level, while retaining its identity in Lower Saxony, where most of its membership is located.

43. The Communists. In the 1953 elections the Communist Party did not gain enough votes to qualify for Bundestag representation, and there are no signs that it can be rehabilitated as a political organization. More important than Communist activities in the political field have been Communist successes in the trade union arena, where they have made gains in elections of workers’ representatives in industry. These successes were due in large part to trade union lethargy. The government and the trade unions are now alert to the dangers of quiet infiltration and are taking effective countermeasures. Because the vast majority of West Germans have an intense distrust and fear of Communism per se and of the USSR in particular, there seems to be little danger from overt Communist activities.

44. The Extreme Right. The splinter parties of the extreme right currently lack Bundestag representation and effective leadership. Unreconstructed Nazis and ultranationalists are to be found in the CDU, FDP, BHE, and DP, but they seem unlikely to achieve a position of dominance within any of these parties. However, the success of the demagogic appeals by ex-Nazis such as Heinrich Schneider during the Saar plebiscite indicate that at least some potential for Nazi-type exploitation remains. The fact that ex-Nazis have emerged within the leadership of the FDP in particular opens the possibility that this party will attempt to attract votes from extreme rightist and ultra-nationalist elements, though in so doing it may lose liberal support.

The 1957 Federal Elections

45. The principal issues in the 1957 campaign will probably be Adenauer’s “authoritarianism,” reunification, conscription, and economic and social reform. Whether or not Adenauer leads the CDU in the elections, it will probably remain the strongest single party, although it is unlikely to retain a majority in the Bundestag.

46. The CDU will probably poll between 37 and 45 percent of the vote. It is very unlikely to reach the upper limits without Adenauer’s active leadership and a high voter turnout. The parties of the present Bonn coalition (CDU, DP, and FDP dissidents) will probably get a working majority of parliamentary seats if the CDU reaches the upper limit, or if the FDP dissidents succeed in drawing a large part of the FDP’s traditional vote. The SPD is unlikely to significantly exceed its traditional one-third of the electorate; it might receive about 36 percent of the vote if the Communist Party is banned prior to the elections. Even under the most favorable circumstances, the FDP is unlikely to poll much over 15 percent of the vote.

47. If the present coalition group receives a working parliamentary majority, the coalition will almost certainly be continued. It seems more likely that the coalition parties will fall short of a majority, particularly if they are deprived of Adenauer’s personal leadership. It is too early to predict what kind of coalition would then take office. A CDU–SPD, a CDU–FDP, and an SPD–FDP coalition, or a minority CDU government are all possibilities. In any event, increased adjustment and compromise will be required if strong and stable government is to be continued.

IV. Probable Government Policies

48. Domestic. Assuming the political developments prior to the elections, and the election outcome, are generally as outlined above, West German domestic policy during the next several years is unlikely to undergo substantial change. The social program will probably be expanded. The government will foster increased farm aid, and will not oppose moderate wage increases. No group is prepared seriously to challenge the financial policies which have maintained economic stability and promoted foreign trade.

49. Rearmament. Rearmament seems to be no longer challenged in principle by West German political leaders. As a result of a compromise between the Socialists and the government regarding civilian authority over the military establishment, the principal legislation required to establish the armed forces has been enacted. However, continuing controversy over the character of the armed forces, and over legislation related to such issues as conscription, land acquisition, and terms of service, will further delay implementation of planned rearmament. The government will probably be able to recruit the 150,000 volunteers presently authorized for its armed forces, but conscripts may not be called until after the 1957 elections.

50. Moreover, Finance Minister Schaeffer’s determination not to raise budgetary outlays to the required level will also contribute to delaying the present three to four year buildup schedule.⁵ The West Germans have so far firmly resisted NATO proposals to increase their annual budgetary commitments over the next three years beyond nine billion marks. While admitting that this outlay will be insufficient to finance the establishment of the required forces by 1959, they suggest that the deficit must be made up in part through US aid and in part from the application of unused occupation cost balances. The government is encouraged in its attitude by the complacency stimulated by the Summit Conference, by a general reluctance to accept the personal sacrifices involved in rearmament, and by political pressures for tax reductions. The government’s budgetary position is probably based to a considerable extent upon the belief that the US will eventually agree to make up the deficit, and it may be prepared to increase its own allotment in a compromise settlement which involved increased US assistance.

51. Some German leaders, especially those opposed to rearmament, are using the argument that some of the present plans and equipment for West German rearmament will soon be obsolete in the light of developments of modern weapons systems. However, most governmental leaders are convinced that West Germany should proceed on the basis of presently available equipment, not only to form a base for effective military forces but also to balance East German armed forces.

52. Western Association. It is highly unlikely that West Germany will abandon its membership in NATO or its intimate association with the United States so long as the present government is in power. Even if those who favor a more independent foreign policy should come to power in Bonn, the strong economic and cultural ties with the West and, above all, the intense fear and distrust of the USSR would deter them from abandoning Bonn’s commitments to the West, except as part of an otherwise satisfactory reunification arrangement.

53. Nevertheless, a decline of popular interest in West European integration has accompanied the emerging interest in a “national” policy. To counteract this and to divert attention from the four-power impasse over reunification, the Adenaeur government has taken a renewed interest in advancing the integration idea. It is pushing West German adherence to the EURATOM project despite opposition from industrialists. It is apparently the Chancellor’s aim to tie West Germany so closely to Western associations that it will be difficult to disengage after his departure. The chances favoring further progress in the integration field would be reduced if Adenauer disappears from the scene. The chances would also be reduced if rightist elements gained substantially in the federal elections. On the other hand, there is increased Socialist support for European integration as shown by their support for EURATOM and the Coal-Steel Community.

54. Also currently binding West Germany to its Western association is the fact that three-fourths of its extensive trade is with Western Europe and the Americas. Nevertheless, West German industrialists are developing considerable hopes and expectations over the possibilities of lucrative trade not only with the Middle East and South Asia but also with Communist China, and to a lesser extent, with the other Bloc countries. In the past Bonn has in general been cooperative with respect to the strategic trade control program, although it has always tended toward a more lenient application of these controls in the case of East Germany. However, the apparent interest of the Soviet Bloc in expanding East-West trade, and the mounting opposition to controls in Western Europe has now convinced many industrialists and traders that a further weakening of the control system is inevitable. While the West: German government is unlikely to take the initiative in pressing for a further relaxation of controls, it will probably follow the British and French leads in this field. The government would probably be unable to resist pressures for establishing broader trade relations with the bloc if the Communist countries should make attractive trade offers, or if free world demand for German exports should decline.

55. Reunification. Bonn’s present policy of firm association with the North Atlantic Community will not prevent it from exploring reunification possibilities directly with the USSR, or even eventually with the East Germans. This tendency would increase if the West Germans became convinced that Western support on reunification were faltering. In any event, the West German government, whatever its political complexion, will probably find it politically necessary to engage in such discussions during the next few years. We believe it unlikely, however, that they would do so without keeping their major Western allies informed.

56. In conducting such discussions we believe that no West German government would accept reunification unless, at a minimum: (a) Soviet forces were withdrawn from East Germany; (b) Germany were permitted an adequate defense force; and (c) the government felt assured that the US would continue to support and protect a united Germany. If the foregoing conditions were met, we believe that any West German government would accept such conditions as: (a) the neutrality of a reunified Germany; (b) a substantial modification of Western proposals for the conduct of elections; and (c) preservation for a limited period of the structure of the East German state within the framework of an all-German government, provided the West Germans were assured of control. No German politician in or outside the governing coalition believes the USSR is currently prepared to meet these terms. Opposition to the present government’s reunification policy is based upon political expediency and upon the hope that the Soviet position might change if direct discussions were opened and if the West German position were less rigid than at present.

57. East Germany. The West German government will face increasing demands for expanded contacts with the population and government of the East Zone, originating not only from the opposition but from virtually all segments of West German society. Because of political and economic necessity and cultural affinity, the West German government will reluctantly agree to a progressively wider range of contacts, perhaps including eventually contacts on the ministerial level. The question of de jure recognition will probably not be posed unless the East German regime should force the issue by applying severe economic restrictions on West Berlin, in which case the West German government would almost cetainly refuse to be intimidated.

V. Longer-Term Outlook

58. The long-range outlook for West German political stability and association with the West includes both favorable and adverse factors. On balance, we believe that, at least for some years to come, the political forces which will control West Germany will remain basically moderate, and that, except in the event of an acceptable Soviet reunification offer, West Germany will adhere to the Western alliance. Constitutional government has strong supporters and seems to have firmly established itself in the Federal Republic. The present West German indifference to extremist appeals, and the moderation of traditional cultural and class conflicts suggest that compromises on basic social and economic issues will probably continue to be reached, and that extremists will probably remain a relatively isolated minority. Military adventurism is unlikely to become a critical factor in West German policy during this longer period. As long as the polarization of global military strengths continues, West Germany will almost certainly refrain from independent military ventures.

59. The present pattern of Bonn’s foreign policy indicates that the West Germans are seeking to establish themselves as co-equal with the “Big Three” Western Powers and will therefore tend to move cautiously in relations with their allies. Moreover, the West will retain great assets in the West Germany’s powerful fear and distrust of the USSR, its cultural affinity for the West, and its recognition of the value of Western, and especially US, power.

60. On the other hand, some factors make the long-term future of democratic and pro-Western government in West Germany uncertain. The passing of Adenauer will remove a strong stabilizing influence in West Germany. Democratic traditions are not deeply rooted in West Germany and authoritarian tendencies have not been eliminated. There is some danger that any of the established parties may become dominated by undemocratic leaders with narrow nationalist concepts. This danger would become serious in the event of protracted economic strains, prolonged governmental instability, or a substantial decline in the relative world power position of West Germany’s present allies. Moreover, if West German constitutional processes and association with the West should come under serious challenge, the German military establishment might again assert itself as a factor of political importance.

61. West Germany’s increased sense of national self-assurance, its emergence as the leading power in continental Western Europe, the growth of its international influence, and the fact that its national interests are no longer completely identical with those of its allies will probably in time cause frictions between the Federal Republic and its Free World neighbors. These frictions in turn may increase mutual suspicions and animosities between the West Germans and other Western European peoples. Moreover, with Soviet policy entering a new phase and the era of Adenauer’s leadership nearing an end, controversy over West Germany’s Western alignment will increase. New political leaders are emerging and the reunification issue will loom larger on the horizon. A continuation of the new flexibility in Soviet policy and of the reduction of tensions in Europe will encourage West German hopes that Soviet policy toward German reunification might change. Under these circumstances, the present policy of rigid alignment with the West would almost certainly be more seriously challenged by nationalist and neutralist elements in West Germany.

1. Source: Department of State, INR–NIE Files. Secret. According to a note on the source text, “The following intelligence organizations participated in the preparation of this estimate: The Central Intelligence Agency and the intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, and The Joint Staff.” The Intelligence Advisory Committee concurred on April 17; also concurring were the Special Assistant, Intelligence, Department of State; the Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Army; the Director of Naval Intelligence; the Director of Intelligence, USAF; and the Deputy Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff. The Atomic Energy Commission Representative to the IAC and the Assistant Director, Federal Bureau of Investigation, abstained, because the subject was outside their jurisdiction.
2. A notation on the source text indicates that NIE 23–56 superseded NIE 23–54 and NIE 23–55, entitled “Probable Developments in West Germany,” December 20, 1954, and “West Germany and the Reunification Issue,” June 28, 1955, respectively. These NIEs are ibid.
3. In addition, two nonvoting FDP deputies from West Berlin continued to support Adenauer. [Footnote in the source text.]
4. Chart showing present party composition of the two houses of the federal legislature appended. [Footnote in the source text. The chart is not printed.]
5. The present schedule calls for a 500,000 man establishment, including a 12-division army of 370,000 men, 20-wing air force equipped with approximately 1,350 aircraft, and a small coastal defense navy. [Footnote in the source text.]