Office of the Historian

751G.00/8–1054

Memorandum by the Acting Special Assistant for Intelligence (Howe) to the Secretary of State

confidential
[Washington,] August 10, 1954.

Subject:

  • Intelligence Note: The Present Situation in South Vietnam

The situation in South Vietnam is characterized by widespread disillusionment over the terms of the Geneva agreements, a dangerous vacuum of political leadership, and uncertainty with respect to French and other Western intentions. There is general realization throughout South Vietnam of the preponderant strength, both military and political, of the Viet Minh regime, and of the determination of that regime to achieve control of all Vietnam.

The Military Situation

For the moment at least, French and Vietnamese forces in South Vietnam now have the capability of maintaining internal security. If French Union forces from the north are evacuated to South Vietnam, this capability would be increased. It should be noted, however, that superiority in forces and fire-power provides no guarantee of security. If, as anticipated, the Viet Minh engages in intensive political warfare in South Vietnam, including the use of irregulars in paramilitary activities, the present Franco–Vietnamese capability to maintain internal security could rapidly disappear.

The Political Situation

The partition, which has awarded 14 of Vietnam’s 25 million people to the Communists, has sapped whatever political vitality South Vietnam may have had. Prime Minister Diem’s government appears temporarily to retain the passive support of his more important nationalist constituents. However, intrigue and opportunism continue to divide Vietnamese politicians and present indications are that certain Cochin-chinese elements, allegedly with French support, are seeking the overthrow of Diem’s government. Viet Minh political activities aimed at discrediting the non-Communist nationalists are already openly in [Page 1935] evidence in both urban and rural areas in South Vietnam. The sentiment for “unification”, even at the expense of Communist domination, appears to be growing.

A similar memorandum has been sent to the Under Secretary.

Fisher Howe