Foreign Relations of the United States, 1952–1954, Eastern Europe; Soviet Union; Eastern Mediterranean, Volume VIII

INR–NIE files

No. 599
National Intelligence Estimate¹

top secret
NIE–65

Washington, June 16, 1953.

Soviet Bloc Capabilities Through 1957

The Problem

To analyze the principal factors affecting Soviet Bloc capabilities and to estimate the probable development of those capabilities, through 1957.

Assumption

That there will not be general war within the period of this estimate.

Conclusions

1. Developments within the USSR resulting from the change in leadership may ultimately affect Soviet Bloc capabilities, but so far the economic and military bases of Soviet power are believed not to have been affected by Stalin’s death. This estimate, therefore, is based on the trends within the Soviet Bloc since 1945, and does not attempt to estimate whether, or to what extent, these trends may be affected by changes within the ruling group.²

2. The rate of growth of the Soviet economy will almost certainly remain higher than that of the US or any other major Western state. However, the output of the USSR will remain much lower than that of the US, and the output of the entire Bloc will remain much lower than that of the NATO states.

3. Bloc scientific and technical capabilities will continue to increase throughout the period of this estimate. However, the scientific assets (the number and quality of trained personnel, facilities, equipment, and financial support) of the US will remain greater than those of the USSR, and the assets of the West as a whole will remain far greater than those of the Bloc.

4. By mid-1957, the USSR may have a stockpile of from 335 to 1,000 atomic weapons (30–100 kiloton yield).³ We have no evidence that thermonuclear weapons are being developed by the USSR. Soviet research, development, and even field testing of thermonuclear reactions based on the disclosures of Fuchs may take place by mid-1953. However, it is very unlikely that the USSR could test a full scale thermonuclear device based on these disclosures before mid-1954. There is also a possibility that Soviet field tests based on independent research and development along other and advanced approaches to the thermonuclear weapons problem might occur by mid-1954. Testing of advanced models might be possible earlier if US developments were known through espionage or other compromise.

. . . . . . .

6. We estimate that the size of Bloc forces-in-being will not increase substantially by 1957. The emphasis in the program for increasing Bloc military strength will continue to be placed upon modernizing the armed forces and upon enlarging the atomic stockpile.

7. We estimate that the Bloc now has the capability to undertake⁴ concurrent large-scale operations in continental Europe, the Middle East, and mainland Asia. The Bloc could reinforce with Chinese Communist and Soviet forces the Communist forces now in Korea, and at the same time undertake⁴ an invasion of Japan by Soviet forces.

8. The USSR now has the capability to undertake⁴ concurrent air operations against the US, the UK, continental Europe, the Middle East, Japan, and the offshore island chain of Asia. However, operations against the US would be much more difficult than those against the other areas. The USSR has the capability to reach all parts of the US and to attempt the delivery of its full stockpile of atomic weapons. However, even a stripped-down TU–4 could reach only the extreme northwestern corner on two-way missions without aerial refueling. Even with aerial refueling and other range extension techniques,⁵ attack upon the strategic northeastern industrial area and upon most of the principal strategic bases almost certainly would involve the expenditure of the attacking aircraft and most of the crews on one-way missions. Until it has a heavy bomber available for operational use, the USSR will not have the capability to reach most of the strategically important areas in the US on two-way missions. A heavy bomber based upon a type which has been seen in flight may begin production and may be available for operational use within the period of this estimate.⁶

9. We estimate that the Bloc has the capability of providing vigorous opposition against air attacks on critical targets in the interior of the USSR, under conditions of good visibility. Under clear moonlit night conditions, Bloc defense capabilities are fair against piston bombers and negligible against jet bombers. Under conditions of poor visibility, day or night, Bloc interception capabilities are negligible.

10. Currently known trends point to an increase of Bloc air defense capabilities during the period of this estimate. However, it is impossible to estimate the extent of significance of any increase, because the future development of airborne intercept (AI) equipment and of guided missiles is obscure; in any case, such an estimate would require knowledge of the characteristics of attacking aircraft through the period of this estimate.⁷

11. Bloc naval forces (except for ocean-going submarines, and new cruisers and destroyers) as now constituted are designed to protect Bloc coastal areas and seaward flanks of ground campaigns. We believe that, as new construction with improved characteristics becomes operational, emphasis will be laid on the creation of striking forces which could operate within the limits of the range of land-based air support. Bloc minelaying capability is extensive, and in the event of war, could seriously interfere with Allied sea communications in Europe and the Far East, or with Western naval operations in waters adjacent to the USSR. The Soviet submarine force will increase its capability to undertake offensive patrols and mining operations along most of the world’s strategically vital sea lanes, and possibly, if the specialized craft have been developed, simultaneously to launch guided missile attacks against targets on both the Atlantic and Pacific seaboards of the US.⁸ The Soviet Navy will have no long-range amphibious capabilities within the period of this estimate, but it will remain capable of mounting short-range amphibious operations in considerable force.

12. The principal sources of strength upon which Bloc political warfare capabilities are based will remain Bloc military power, which generates fear and defeatism, and the Bloc’s size, strategic position, economic power and potential, and centralized direction. Other sources of Bloc political warfare strength are the highly organized Communist international movement, and the leadership and discipline of the individual Communist Parties; Communist ideas and doctrine, which influence many non-Communists as well as Communists; and the accumulated experience and professional skill of Soviet intelligence, propaganda, and subversive organizations and of Soviet use of front organizations. Finally, the fixity of Communist purpose to impose Communism on the world and the unified direction of Communist action give the Communists a tactical political warfare advantage in determining the nature, direction, and intensity of courses of action to be used against the non-Communist world.

13. It is difficult to estimate how Bloc political warfare capabilities will develop, since they depend to a large degree not only upon the situation within the USSR but also upon the success with which the non-Communist world meets the challenges to its stability which would exist even if there were no Communist threat. It is also difficult to estimate the development of Bloc political warfare capabilities because they are dependent not only on the relative attractive power of Communist and non-Communist ideas, but on the relative military strength of the Bloc and the West. If Western military strength should increase, relative to that of the Bloc, Bloc political warfare capabilities would probably decline. On the other hand, fear of war and consequent vulnerability to Bloc political warfare would probably increase in the non-Communist world, if the Bloc’s capability to deliver atomic weapons should increase relative to Western defenses, and if the Bloc should improve its air defenses relative to Western offensive capabilities.⁹

14. We believe that during the period of this estimate Communist capabilities to establish Communist governments by political warfare techniques will be most likely to increase in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. These capabilities will probably remain greatest in Iran and Indochina.

15. In other areas of the world, Communist capabilities to influence the attitudes of non-Communist governments and peoples will constitute the principal danger posed by Bloc political warfare. The Communists may be able to undermine support for Western programs of defense and for increased political and economic unity, and they may be able to heighten tensions among the members of the Western coalition. For these purposes, they can exploit national differences between the Western Powers, economic and trade difficulties, nationalism in colonial and dependent areas, and dread of war.

[Here follow 12 of the 16 pages of the source text presenting a detailed discussion of the points made above.]

1. Regarding National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs), see footnote 2, Document 491.

   According to a note on the cover sheet of this NIE, the intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force, and the Joint Staff participated with the CIA in the preparation of this estimate. The note further indicates the IAC concurred in this estimate on June 9.

2. The Special Assistant, Intelligence, Department of State, the Assistant Chief of Staff, G–2, Intelligence, Department of the Army, and the Deputy Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff, believe that this sentence should be replaced with the following:

   It is impossible as yet to estimate with confidence whether or not a prolonged struggle for power among the new leaders will develop during the period 1953–1957. We believe, however, that if such a struggle for power should develop, it would be confined to the higher echelons of the Soviet Communist Party and Government and would probably not precipitate open conflict within or between the armed forces and security police, or involve the Soviet population. We estimate, therefore, that the stability of the regime in the USSR is unlikely to be jeopardized by differences that may develop among the Soviet leaders. [Footnote in the source text.]

3. The estimates beyond mid-1955 are tentative projections of the estimates for the earlier years. [Footnote in the source text.]
4. No estimate of the success of these operations can be made without considering the effects of the actions of opposing forces. [Footnote in the source text.]
4. No estimate of the success of these operations can be made without considering the effects of the actions of opposing forces. [Footnote in the source text.]
4. No estimate of the success of these operations can be made without considering the effects of the actions of opposing forces. [Footnote in the source text.]
5. We believe that the USSR has the capability to utilize range extension techniques, but we have no evidence that any of these techniques have been exploited. [Footnote in the source text.]
6. For more detailed information, see SE–36, “Soviet Capabilities for Attack on the US through Mid-1955” (5 March 1953). [Footnote in the source text. For text of SE–36, see Document 552.]

7. The Director of Naval Intelligence believes that this paragraph should read as follows:

   We believe the Bloc will continue its present emphasis on air defense, and that its capabilities in this respect will increase during the period of this estimate. Operational use of improved early warning and ground intercept radar, and the extensive employment of airborne intercept equipment will contribute to this increase. The development and production of all-weather jet fighters and guided missiles, which are within Bloc capabilities, would further improve Bloc air defense. However, we cannot estimate the significance of these improvements relative to future air offensive capabilities. [Footnote in the source text.]

8. We believe the USSR capable of adapting submarines to this use, but we have no evidence to indicate that such modifications have been made. [Footnote in the source text.]

9. The Director of Naval Intelligence believes this paragraph should read as follows in order to render the military hypothesis more realistic and inclusive:

   It is difficult to estimate how Bloc political warfare capabilities will develop, since they depend to a large degree upon the situation within the USSR, the success with which the non-Communist world meets the challenges to its stability which would exist even if there were no Communist threat, and the relative military strengths of the Bloc and the West. Thus, Bloc political warfare capabilities will increase if the non-Communist world fails to solve adequately the problems of economic stability, national rivalries, common defense, and aspirations for independence in the colonial areas. If Western military strength and cohesion should increase substantially relative to that of the Bloc, Bloc political warfare capabilities would probably be checked, and might decline in some areas. On the other hand, if the over-all military strength of the Bloc should substantially increase relative to that of the West, Bloc political warfare capabilities would rise, particularly with respect to the promotion of appeasement, apathy, and the fear of war. [Footnote in the source text.]