867N.01/12–2148: Telegram
The Special Representative of the United States in Israel (McDonald) to the Acting Secretary of State
priority
324. In confidential and strictly informal talk Shiloah with Knox, former stated Egyptian and Iraqi refusals talk armistice causing increasing concern PGI. Shiloah stated Egyptian offer tendered through Riley was that if Israel would free half of trapped Egyptian Faluja forces, Egypt would negotiate with Israel through Riley but not direct; Egyptian Field Commander reported stated he would never [Page 1680] negotiate with Israel Chief Staff but would designate subordinate talk with ICS. These proposals unacceptable to PGI as being subterfuges insure further delays solution while Egyptian Army reforms and rearms. Iraqi have apparently made no proposals for armistice.
It is not known what extent Shiloah’s remarks reflect official thinking but there is some sentiment in military circles, supported in part by press reflecting public disappointment over failure achieve UN” membership, that UN may not arrive at any satisfactory solution owing Arab intransigence and that a further indefinite and difficult truce may drag victor into what might be tantamount partial defeat owing economic and financial strain. Such opinions based on “realistic” argument that no one disposed help Israel but herself and that in this “realistic” world Israel had best think about clearing up situation definitively.
Mission presupposes that Department and Military authorities Washington fully aware by now Israel has stronger military force than any Arab state plus organization and esprit that makes for victory.
Estimate situation is even stronger now than Mistel 179, October 14. Israel fully able defeat either Egyptian forces in Negev or Iraqi in triangle alternately while holding on other Arab fronts. If Transjordan maintains neutrality as indicated present truce mission estimates Israel could drive Iraqi over Jordan and Egyptians from Negev simultaneously, although Iraqi operation might be very costly owing adverse terrain.
Mission has no reason believe that PGI is not fully disposed give Conciliation Commission chance to relieve situation but it is important Commission get under way without delay. Transjordan negotiations armistice rumored stalled. Shertok arrives on 23d and expectation is he will actively push direct negotiations with Arabs.