611.6131/11–1548: Telegram
The Chargé in the Soviet Union (Kohler) to the Secretary of State
2650. Re Deptel 1308, November 10.1
Language Embtel 2583, November 7,2 especially phrase “the critical lever” apparently over-strong as we intended only stress our opinion rubber principal and perhaps deciding but not sole factor in possible Soviet decision deny US manganese (see Embtel 1751 August 253). Any decision this nature would be made at level Soviet bureaucracy constantly aware all factors and we do not agree with implication Soviet left and right hands might operate independently in matter of such importance. We certainly agree overt action our part this late hour to stop rubber shipments entirely or reverse consummated Soviet rubber purchases would precipitate manganese reprisals.
[Page 582]On whole, Embassy considers approach outlined Deptel 808 July 154 et seq. sound and sees no reasonable alternative. In our view, target must be prevent Soviet accumulation reserves of menacing strategic significance without cutting down normal imports to point compelling Soviet reprisal on manganese. First essential certainly definition scope problem agreed with British, then joint effort with them to secure cooperation other major rubber interests, whether ERP or not, to secure preventive action on basis not only limiting growth Soviet military potential, hence threat to peace, but also for protection economic self-interest in orderly marketing rubber, and towards long-range solution present complete world natural rubber problem.
Embassy lacks information and background to warrant detailed comment specific problems reference telegram. Execution program would clearly involve organized cooperation all significant producers natural rubber and surveillance satellites as well as Soviet Union imports. While such action obviously difficult, should not be insuperable and certainly should be tried. We see no reason for UK and Netherlands to interpret their trade accords as commitment supply abnormal quantities. If direct preclusive buying now impracticable, methods might still be found adjust production and marketing by use ERP funds or counter-funds to increase European markets of producing countries, etc. While possibilities under (3) probably limited, survey Soviet orders from US now blocked by export controls might disclose some possibilities advantageous manganese deals.