740.0011 European War 1939/31891
Memorandum by Mr. Elbridge Durbrow, of the Division of European Affairs
While there is no doubt that it will be in the interest of the United States both politically and economically to assist the Soviet Union in every way possible to rebuild its industry after the war and assist in rehabilitating that country, and while there is no question, as Mr. Nelson stated to Mr. Stalin, that we would have a surplus of capital [Page 723] equipment which could be sold to the Soviet Union, I am afraid that on the basis of careful studies made by an Interdepartmental Committee working on this subject it will be most difficult to increase our trade with the Soviet Union.96 While the Soviet need for capital as well as consumers’ goods will be almost overwhelming and while the sale of such goods to the Soviet Union would assist in keeping up American industrial activity after the war, there are unfortunately very few goods produced which we can purchase in order to give the necessary purchasing power to the Soviet Union to buy large quantities of American products.
Contrary to the general belief on this subject the United States and the Soviet Union are not complementary countries since there are very few products produced in the U.S.S.R. which we can take in exchange for American goods.
After extensive studies by the Interdepartmental Committee it became clear that we could not increase our purchases from the U.S.S.R. by more than six or seven times the highest amount purchased prior to the war which averaged about twenty-five million dollars a year. The Committee in endeavoring to explore all possibilities for increasing Soviet-American trade took into consideration Soviet purchasing power obtained from direct sales, triangular trade, tourist expenditures and gold shipments.
In considering the possibility of extending credits to the U.S.S.R. to assist in rehabilitating Soviet industry during the first years after the war, the Committee came to the conclusion that such credits if they were to be repaid in a reasonable time—ten to twenty years—could not exceed two hundred million dollars.
It will be seen therefore that extreme caution must be taken in order to avoid false impressions being created regarding the possibilities of postwar trade with the Soviet Union.
- For consideration of the nature of postwar trade with the Soviet Union by the Interdepartmental Committee, see the memorandum of October 28, 1942, by Mr. Durbrow, Foreign Relations, 1942, vol. iii, p. 764.↩