390.1115A/357: Telegram
The Consul General at Singapore (Patton) to the Secretary of State
[Received February 23—8:50 a.m.]
1. Department’s strictly confidential telegram February 20, 4 p.m.14 It is our opinion that the extension to Malaya of the policy mentioned in paragraph 1 would have a disturbing effect locally. Any warning of this kind would inevitably be sensational, especially to the Asiatic population and would result in pressure upon the Government for air raid shelters which the Government is not prepared to provide and for which construction material is not available. Moreover advice to Americans to leave might reasonably be interpreted as a lack of confidence in ability of British to defend this area and thus tend to nullify reassuring effect of recent important defense measures including reinforcements from Australia. Above is considered judgment based on careful observation but, in view of Department’s instructions, without consultation with British authorities.
Steamer accommodations now available out of Singapore are irregular and inadequate for Malaya without considering possibility of influx of Americans from adjoining territories. Therefore special arrangements to meet this condition should be made in anticipation of any warning. In this connection the Department may wish to consider discussing with British authorities feasibility of utilizing in case of emergency transports which are now in use to move Australian forces to this territory and Middle East and which are returning largely unoccupied to Australia. In event of serious need British Government would doubtless undertake evacuation of its civil population [Page 406] to Australia or Ceylon. As this would involve possibly 10,000 women and children, our own problem of moving about 350 citizens might be fitted into larger scheme.
Prevailing opinion here is that any outbreak of hostilities would be preceded by at least one month’s significant indications.
It is believed that if any move to withdraw Americans is to be initiated the preliminary step should be [to] withhold in the United States validation of passports for women and children desiring to come out. Such action would avoid undesirable repercussions which might follow premature warning and if learned here might have practical effect of inducing some local Americans to leave.
This telegram has been drafted in consultation with our naval and military observers.
As no mention is made of Bangkok in the Department’s telegram, the Consulate General assumes that the Department desires it to repeat message to Batavia only. This has been done.