Foreign Relations of the United States Diplomatic Papers, 1941, The Far East, Volume V

740.0011 P. W./285: Telegram

The Acting Secretary of State to the Ambassador in the United Kingdom (Winant)

Washington, July 24, 1941—7 p.m.

2759. Your 3164, July 24, 1 p.m.¹⁰ The present Japanese military démarche in Indochina appears to be an important manifestation of Japan’s opportunist policy of expansion by force undertaken with a view to placing Japanese military and naval forces in a strategic position for further military moves in case future developments should make such moves opportune and feasible.

It is premature as yet to form a clear idea of what developments may be expected in the near future following the Japanese occupation of or establishment of bases in Indochina. While there have been received many reports indicating increased Japanese military and naval activity, there is no strong evidence that the Japanese contemplate a movement further southward than Indochina at the present time. Simultaneously with reports of military activity in apparent connection with the Indochina situation there have been reports indicating preparations for strengthening Japanese garrisons in Manchuria and a number of developments, including establishment by Japan of censorship of communications services and restrictions on travel in the Japanese inland sea, North China, Manchuria and Korea, which would be logical preparations for a movement northward at some future time. There is, however, no evidence that a Japanese attack on the Soviet Far East is imminent. Whether such attack will eventually be made seems likely to depend upon developments.

The gist of our information therefore remains substantially along the lines indicated in the penultimate sentence of my telegram 2454, July 7, 8 p.m.¹¹

On July 23 Ambassador Grew telegraphed¹² suggesting that while Japan may be expected under its new cabinet to pursue an increasingly independent attitude toward all nations, including Japan’s allies in the Tripartite Pact, a complete and sudden swing in the orientation of Japan’s foreign policy from the Axis was not to be expected.

You will note in today’s Radio Bulletin the text of a statement which I issued to the press¹³ in regard to Japan’s occupation of naval and air bases in Indochina. As indicated therein, this Government is seriously concerned over developments in the Indochina situation. We are giving careful consideration to possible action that we might take, especially in the economic and financial field, a number of steps are under active consideration, and some initial step will probably be taken in the next day or two. We are in constant touch with the British Embassy here in regard to the situation.

Welles

10. Not printed.
11. Vol. iv, p. 294.
12. Telegram No. 1052, July 23, noon, ibid., p. 336.
13. Foreign Relations, Japan, 1931–1941, vol. ii, p. 315.