740.0011 European War, 1939/312: Telegram
The Ambassador in the United Kingdom (Kennedy) to the Secretary of State
[Received September 15—2 p.m.]
1666. Personal for the Secretary. I just had lunch with Hore-Belisha38 alone at his house. He is a very blue individual. First of all, as he is by far the youngest man in the Cabinet, he thinks that the older men in the Cabinet spend all their time worrying about the wording of communiqués instead of getting the country marshaled for a great war. He is also blue about the outlook. He said the news from Poland today is that the Poles are completely defeated; that within 2 or 3 days they will be trying to get over the borders of Rumania, Hungary and Russia, principally Rumania. He said they think that Hitler will then say that he cannot have the Polish Army in Rumania and that he will push on to Rumania and be there before anybody wakes up to the fact. Belisha says Hitler’s plan then will be to ask Bulgaria what she proposes to do and Bulgaria will very likely go in on the side of the Germans. Hitler having arrived at this position, Belisha thinks that his next move is to make a proposition to Turkey and offer Turkey vast holdings in Syria and Iraq, et cetera, and he believes that the Turks will accept.
He said when the British originally talked with the Turks they anticipated Italy’s being hostile and for that reason Turkey imagined that she could get herself a pretty good deal, but now, with the British trying to be friendly with Italy, the Turks have become rather difficult.
So the situation looks very serious. In fact, Belisha said it would not at all surprise him if they finally come to arms with the Germans in Palestine. As to the western front, he said he does not concede France the slightest chance of breaking through the Siegfried line. He thinks that Germany, if it gets on its way, with force of numbers will definitely go through Belgium and turn the Maginot line. He is thoroughly convinced that, with the number of men Germany can call upon, France and England are in no shape to cope with her.
What disturbs him more than anything else of course is whether or not Britain can buy from the United States, because he says if they don’t get the right to purchase from us it is all over as far as Great Britain is’ concerned; but then, if they have the right he does not know how long they would be able to pay for what they need. He sees no possibility of being able to pay very long. The great immediate danger is that if the United States takes a position against any change in the Neutrality Act Italy, Russia and Turkey will make up their [Page 427] minds that England cannot win and will hurry to get on the German bandwagon.
He feels that England still does not take this thing seriously enough and that there should be mobilization of all men possible in England and women should go into industry and industry should be definitely taken over by the Government. He said the war is being carried on on a make-believe basis.
I asked him about the air force and he said Gamelin39 said he did not want to use the allied air forces in Poland. I asked him also if he was surprised at the speed with which Poland had collapsed and he said that Gamelin had told the British staff he thought the Poles could hold out 3 months. The Germans had given the British to understand that Poland could hold out 3 days. Since they have held out about 12 days the Germans were nearer right.
There is not much incentive to hand us any propaganda as to whether they are strong or weak, because they have not the slightest idea what the reaction will be. If they tell us Britain is weak we may decide we do not want any part of it and the best thing to do is to keep out; if they tell us Britain is strong we may say that they do not need our help and therefore we can stay out very nicely, so Hore-Belisha’s slant which I have given you here is probably the picture just as they see it. They have great confidence that they will stick, but I don’t think they are any too optimistic about the results.